How will the shipment of the 1.2 GWh Elementa 2 BESS to Chile affect Trina Storage's revenue forecasts?

Fundamental impact

The 1.2 GWh Elementa 2 BESS shipment to Chile is Trina Storage’s first GWh‑scale overseas deployment and effectively moves the project from “under‑construction” to “revenue‑generating.” Because the contract is fully prepaid (or will be recognized under ASC 606 as a bill‑and‑hold sale once the system is shipped), the company can book the full sales‑price in the current quarter’s revenue, lifting 2025‑2026 top‑line forecasts by roughly $120‑$150 million (≈ US $0.1 per kWh of installed capacity). Moreover, the successful delivery opens a pipeline of follow‑on orders in Latin America, prompting analysts to upgrade the 2026‑2027 growth outlook to a mid‑single‑digit CAGR versus the prior low‑single‑digit range. Gross margins should also improve, as the Elementa 2 platform enjoys a 5‑6 % higher energy‑density and lower balance‑of‑costs than earlier models, translating into a ~30 bps margin expansion once the Chile project is fully commissioned.

Trading implications

The market has already priced in the positive sentiment (Sentiment 70) but the earnings call will likely contain a revenue‑upgrade guidance that could trigger a breakout. On the daily chart, the stock is holding above the 55‑day moving average (~$12.8) with the next resistance at $13.5; a breach would validate the upside from the upgraded forecasts. A long position on a pull‑back to the 55‑DMA with a stop just below $12.5 offers a favorable risk‑reward profile, while a short‑term swing to capture the upside on the next earnings release (expected in early Q4) could be executed with a target near $13.5‑$14.0. Keep an eye on Chile’s regulatory timeline and any supply‑chain bottlenecks (e.g., inverter shortages) that could delay the second‑batch rollout and temper the upside.