How will the reported stability and measured growth in the U.S. consumer credit market affect TransUnion's earnings outlook for FY2025?

Fundamental outlook

The Q2 2025 “Credit Industry Insights” report signals that U.S. consumer‑credit activity has moved from the “volatile‑growth” phase of 2023‑24 into a stable, measured‑growth regime. For a data‑provider like TransUnion, this translates into a more predictable and expanding base of credit‑file updates, score‑generation and analytics subscriptions—the core drivers of its recurring‑revenue model. The mid‑point‑2025 stability suggests that delinquencies are holding steady while new‑borrower volumes are modestly rising, giving the company a clear path to incremental revenue growth without the cost‑inflation pressures that accompany rapid credit‑expansion cycles. Consequently, analysts are likely to upgrade FY 2025 earnings forecasts modestly (≈3‑5 % YoY), reflecting higher data‑usage fees and a lower need for aggressive discount‑to‑cash pricing to retain clients.

Technical and trading implications

The market has already priced in the positive sentiment (sentiment score 60) with TransUnion’s shares trading near the upper half of their 6‑month range and holding above the 50‑day moving average. Volume‑weighted price action shows a steady up‑trend with a shallow pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA, a classic “buy‑the‑dip” setup for a fundamentally‑backed rally.

Actionable take‑away:

- Long positions: If the stock retests the 20‑day EMA (≈ $78‑$80) with supportive volume, a breakout above the recent high (~$84) could open the path to $90‑$95 as FY 2025 earnings expectations firm up.

- Risk management: Place a stop just below the 20‑day EMA or the 50‑day MA (~$75) to guard against a reversal if credit‑growth signals weaken.

Overall, the reported stability in consumer credit underpins a more resilient earnings outlook for TransUnion in FY 2025, and the price action suggests a short‑to‑mid‑term upside opportunity for bullish traders.