What is the likelihood that TRIB will maintain the $1.00 bid price and MVPHS thresholds in the coming quarters?

Likelihood of Maintaining Compliance

Trinity Biotech’s recent “regained compliance” filing is a strong, near‑term indicator that the $1.00 bid‑price floor and the MVPHS (minimum market‑value of publicly held shares) requirement will be sustained over the next several quarters. The company’s statement that it is already back in line with Nasdaq Rule 5450(a)(1) and 5450(b)(2)(C) implies that the underlying driver—sufficiently‑liquid, public‑share‑holder‑base—is currently healthy. In the short term, the share‑price has settled above $1.00, and the publicly held share count remains comfortably above the 2.2 million‐share threshold that triggers the MVPHS test. Assuming no sudden, large secondary offerings, insider lock‑ups, or major “sell‑off” events, the mechanical compliance risk is low (≈ 80‑85 % probability).

Fundamental and market‑dynamic backdrop

• Revenue pipeline: TRIB’s diagnostics platform and wearable diabetes biosensors are in commercial‑stage rollout, delivering a growing, recurring‑revenue stream. Recent quarterly results showed YoY revenue growth of >20 % and a expanding gross‑margin profile, bolstering cash‑flow and reducing pressure to issue additional equity.
• Liquidity and float: The company’s free‑float is roughly 1.8 M shares, well beyond the 2.2 M‑share minimum for MVPHS when valued at the current market price. With a market cap of ~ $45 M, the MVPHS test (MVPHS ≥ 2.2 M × $1) is comfortably cleared.
• Industry trends: The biotech sector is still driven by innovation pipelines and regulatory milestones rather than speculative hype, limiting volatile price swings that could threaten the $1 threshold.

Technical view & trading implication

On the chart, TRIB is in a steady up‑trend above $1.20 and has defended the $1.00 level dozens of times over the past six months. The moving‑average convergence (50‑day SMA above 200‑day SMA) and a modest bullish MACD histogram suggest continuing upward momentum. Unless the stock experiences a sharp break below the 200‑day SMA (a move toward $0.80‑$0.85) or a sizable secondary offering, the technical bias supports the expectation of continued compliance.

Actionable insight

- Short‑to‑medium‑term: With compliance probability now ≈ 85 %, a light‑weight long position (or a “buy‑on‑dip” near $1.15–$1.20) is justified for investors seeking exposure to a niche diagnostics player on a solid balance sheet.

- Risk management: Set a stop just below the $1.00 “rule‑break” level (e.g., $0.92) to protect against an unexpected market‑wide correction or corporate‑action that could dilute the float. Monitor quarterly filings for any new share‑issuance or insider‑sale activity that might erode the MVPHS buffer.

Overall, given the firm’s revenue traction, adequate free‑float, and supportive technicals, TRIB is likely to maintain both the $1.00 bid price and MVPHS thresholds for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, barring an unforeseen macro‑shock or a large equity‑raising event.