What is the anticipated execution timeline and volume of the automatic share purchase plan, and how might it influence TRI's short‑term price dynamics and liquidity?
Execution timeline / volume
Thomson Reuters has tied the newly‑launched Automatic Share Purchase Plan (ASPP) to its broader $1 billion repurchase programme and the existing normal‑course‑issuer‑bid (NCIB). The ASPP will be run on a rolling‑basis ‑ i.e. beginning immediately and continuing until the $1 bn cap is reached or the NCIB limit of 10 million TRI shares is met. Management typically staggers such purchases over a 12‑month horizon, with the broker‑‑dealer executing “open‑market” purchases in tranches of a few hundred thousand shares per week, subject to market‑liquid‑ity and price‑level constraints. In practice, expect the plan to deliver up to 10 million shares (≈3.5 % of the current free float) spread across the next 12 months, with a rough average of ~200 k‑300 k shares per week.
Short‑term price dynamics
Because the ASPP represents a pre‑announced, recurring demand source, it creates an immediate floor under TRI’s price. Each tranche will be executed at prevailing market rates, but the market will price‑in the predictable buying pressure, especially once the weekly purchase windows become known (e.g., “mid‑week accumulation”). This tends to generate modest upward bias on the daily chart, often coinciding with a bounce off the recent support zone around the 20‑day moving average. The plan also lifts the bid‑ask spread on the days of execution, temporarily thinning available sell‑side liquidity as the float is quietly absorbed. Consequently, on‑balance‑volume and “buy‑pressure” indicators should show spikes on purchase days, while price may briefly pull back after a tranche is completed, creating micro‑pull‑backs that can be exploited by short‑term long‑biased traders.
Actionable take‑away
* Buy on dips – When the ASPP triggers a short‑term sell‑off (typically the 1–2 %‑wide pull‑back after a tranche), the built‑in demand acts as a “floor” and offers a lower‑‑risk entry. Look for the next‑day price to resume the upward trajectory, especially if the daily volume remains above the 30‑day average.
* Monitor execution windows – Brokers often disclose the planned “open‑market” windows (e.g., Tues/Thurs). Anticipate a modest volume surge and a short‑term price lift; a quick scalp can be taken on the intraday rally.
* Liquidity watch – As the ASPP draws down free‑float, the order book may become skinnier on the ask side, raising the likelihood of “blue‑sky” price spikes if the plan reaches its 10 M‑share ceiling. Position‐size accordingly and keep a tight stop a few points below the recent swing low to protect against sudden exhaustion of the buying program.