What are the specific revenue and earnings targets outlined in the Amplify plan and the timeline for achieving them?
Amplify plan – the numbers
- Revenue target: $6.5 billion in net sales (run‑rate) by 2027 – roughly a 5‑6 % compound‑annual‑growth rate (CAGR) versus the current FY‑24 run‑rate.
- Earnings target: Adjusted earnings of $1.20 per share (≈ $1.0 billion of adjusted net income) by 2027, translating to an adjusted earnings‑margin of about 19 %.
The plan spells out a four‑year horizon (2024 → 2027) for these “Amplify” milestones, with incremental break‑points outlined for FY‑25, FY‑26 and FY‑27 to keep the pace on track.
Trading implications
Valuation upside – The $6.5 bn/2027 revenue goal implies a ≈ 15 % YoY sales growth rate that is comfortably above the consensus 12‑13 % CAGR implied by analysts. Assuming a peer‑group forward‑PE of ~12×, the FY‑27 earnings estimate ($1.0 bn) would support a FY‑27 EPS of $1.20 and a target price in the $80‑$85 range (vs. current ≈ $71). This leaves ~10‑15 % upside for the next 12‑18 months, provided execution stays on track.
Momentum on the chart – TPR’s 200‑day SMA is still intact, and the share price has been holding the $70‑$73 range after the Investor‑Day rally. A breakout above the $78 resistance level (the March‑April high) could trigger a short‑term bullish move toward the $80‑$85 target, especially if the company releases any interim updates (e.g., Q4 2024 or FY‑25 guidance) confirming the revenue‑growth trajectory.
Risk factors – The plan hinges on continued consumer‑spending strength, successful cross‑brand synergies, and the rollout of new product lines. A slowdown in discretionary spend or supply‑chain headwinds could compress the 2025‑2026 growth momentum, pressuring the stock back toward the $65‑$68 support zone (the 50‑day SMA and recent low‑mid‑April dip).
Bottom line: If you are bullish on TPR’s “Amplify” execution, consider a long‑position with a $78‑$80 entry and a $80‑$85 price target for a 12‑18‑month horizon, while keeping a stop near $66‑$68 to protect against consumer‑demand headwinds. A scaled‑in approach (e.g., 50 % now at $78, 25 % at $73, 25 % at $68) can hedge execution risk while still capturing the upside if the plan’s 2027 milestones are met.