What is the expected timeline for leasing the 393 units and what occupancy rates are projected for the first year?

Leasing timeline & occupancy outlook

Because the development is a “new luxury” community in a high‑demand corridor of the New York‑Boston corridor, the sponsor (Toll Brothers Apartment Living®/Harris Realty) is likely to target a 12‑month lease‑up window. In comparable premium projects in the Greater Connecticut market, developers typically achieve 80 % of the inventory signed within the first 9 months and the balance by month 12‑15. Given the 393‑unit size, we can therefore expect the majority of the units to be leased within the next 12 months, with a full lease‑up completed by roughly Q4 2025.

Projected first‑year occupancy

Norwalk’s vacancy rate has hovered around 4 % in 2023‑24, and luxury‑grade assets have been absorbing supply at a faster clip than the overall market. Assuming the community’s premium positioning and the “sophisticated design + premium amenities” narrative, the developer will likely aim for 90‑95 % occupancy in the first 12 months (≈ 355‑375 units). This range reflects a realistic balance between the strong local demand for upscale rentals and the typical 6‑9 month absorption curve for a project of this scale.

Trading implications

A rapid lease‑up and high first‑year occupancy translate into a near‑term earnings boost for Toll Brothers (TOL)—higher rental income, lower per‑unit marketing spend, and a quicker transition from development‑costs to cash‑flow. The market’s positive sentiment (+60) and the scarcity of comparable luxury supply in the region suggest the stock could see upside pressure if the lease‑up proceeds on schedule. Traders might consider a short‑to‑mid‑term long position or buying on any pull‑back, while keeping an eye on local rental‑rate trends and any construction‑delay news that could push the lease‑up beyond the 12‑month horizon.