How will the conversion terms of the preferred stock affect the dilution of existing shareholders?
The deal issues 7,000âŻĂâŻ$1,000 preferred shares that each convert into 200 common shares (1,400,000 common shares total). At a $5âperâshare conversion price, the preferred stock is effectively a âdownâroundâ instrument; if TNFâs common is trading above $5 when conversion is allowed, the preferred holders have a strong incentive to convert, instantly adding 1.4âŻmillion shares to the float. Assuming TNFâs current outstanding common base is roughly 30âŻmillion shares (the typical range for a smallâcap biotech), the conversion would dilute existing equity by about 4.5â5âŻ%. That dilution will shrink earningsâperâshare and each shareholderâs ownership percentage, and it will increase the supply of shares, which can pressure the price unless the newlyâraised $7âŻmillion is deployed into valueâcreating R&D or a nearâterm catalyst.
From a technical standpoint, the $5 conversion floor creates a potential support level; the market often respects the price at which a large block of convertible securities could be exchanged for common stock. If the price stays comfortably above $5, conversion risk is high and the stock may experience a modest pullâback as investors price in the upcoming dilution. Conversely, a sharp move below $5 could delay conversion and give the stock shortâterm upside as the dilution threat recedes.
Trading takeâaway:âŻMonitor the conversion timetable and any covenants that could force earlier conversion (e.g., a âmandatory conversionâ trigger tied to a market price). If the stock is trading well above $5 and the conversion window is near, consider a modest short position or a protective put to hedge the dilutionâdriven downside. If the price is near or below $5, the dilution risk is muted and the $7âŻM infusion could be a catalystâlook for buying opportunities on bounceâback patterns, especially if the company announces a concrete use of proceeds (e.g., a PhaseâŻII trial start). In either case, keep an eye on the postâconversion share count and adjust your position size to reflect the new float.