How might the upcoming data release affect existing short‑interest and options activity on TNAX?

Impact on Short‑Interest

The Q2‑2025 release underscores that the pivotal “LEVEL” Phase‑3 trial will not deliver results until H2‑2026, pushing the catalyst window well beyond the next earnings call. For short sellers, this creates a longer‑term “drift” risk: the stock can remain elevated on optimism about eventual data, but the extended timeline also leaves more room for adverse trial‑related news (e.g., enrollment delays, safety flags). Consequently, we can expect a modest uptick in short‑interest as quantitative/short‑bias funds reposition to a “play‑the‑delay” narrative, especially given the low‑sentiment score (20) that signals market ambivalence. Watch the short‑interest ratio over the next two weeks—if it climbs above the 10‑day average, it may signal a building bearish stance that could be vulnerable to a short‑squeeze if the trial progresses on schedule.

Options Activity Outlook

Implied volatility (IV) on TNAX weekly and monthly options is likely to widen ahead of the enrollment‑completion update (expected H1‑2026) and the eventual topline read‑out. Current open‑interest is dominated by out‑of‑the‑money (OTM) call spreads ( strikes 20‑30% above the current price) and a modest volume of protective puts. Traders anticipating a “good news” catalyst will load long‑call positions, inflating call IV relative to puts. If the market digests the Q2 results as “no new downside,” we could see a rapid IV contraction in the call side, creating a short‑call‑sell opportunity for premium capture. Conversely, a sudden negative update (e.g., enrollment lag) would trigger a spike in put IV and a sharp rise in put‑open‑interest, providing a buying opportunity for long‑puts or bear‑ratio spreads.

Actionable Take‑aways

1. Monitor short‑interest trends; a rising short‑ratio paired with stable or rising price could set up a short‑squeeze play when any positive enrollment milestone is announced.

2. Consider a call credit spread (e.g., sell 1‑call 5‑point OTM, buy 1‑call 10‑point OTM) to harvest premium if you believe the trial timeline remains unchanged and the market will not deliver a surprise upside.

3. If you’re more defensive, a long‑put or put‑ratio spread positioned ~10% below the current price can profit from a sudden IV jump on any adverse trial news. Keep the position size modest, as the stock is still thinly traded and prone to abrupt moves on clinical updates.