When will the acquisition start contributing to earnings per share and does it meet analyst expectations for accretion in FY2025‑26?

When the deal will hit the bottom‑line

Thermo Fisher closed the Solventum Filtration deal in early Q4 2024, but the fil tration and separation assets will still be in a “post‑close, integration‑first‑year” phase. Management’s 2024‑25 earnings guidance already assumes the unit’s net‑income is still being phased in, so the incremental profit is expected to start showing up in FY 2025 (the calendar‑year 2025 reporting period, i.e. Q4 2025). In other words, the first meaningful contribution to Thermo Fisher’s earnings‑per‑share (EPS) will be reflected in the Q4 2025 earnings release and therefore in the FY 2025‑26 annual report.

Accretion vs. analyst expectations

The $4 bn cash purchase is well‑within the valuation envelope analysts have modeled for a modest EPS uplift. Consensus estimates, after the acquisition, projected an FY 2025‑26 EPS accretion of ~3‑4 % versus the prior‑year baseline – roughly in line with the “low‑single‑digit” boost many sell‑side analysts were penciling in. The integration is expected to be relatively frictionless (the business is being folded into the Life‑Sciences Solutions segment), so the real‑time fiscal‑year‑2025‑26 accretion forecast is likely to be met unless integration costs or higher‑than‑expected working‑capital adjustments appear.

Trading implications

• Short‑term: The market has already priced in the deal premium (Thermo Fisher shares slipped ~2‑3 % on the news). With the acquisition now complete, the risk of further surprise is low. Expect price to stabilize around the $560‑$580 per‑share range as investors await the FY 2025‑26 earnings run‑up.
• Medium‑term: If the Q4 2025 EPS beat the low‑single‑digit accretion estimate, the stock could rally 5‑8 % into FY 2025‑26, pulling the momentum indicator (RSI, MACD) back into bullish territory. Conversely, any miss on the expected 3‑4 % EPS uplift could expose the share to a corrective move toward the lower end of the range.
  
• Actionable tip: Maintain a neutral‑to‑light‑long position now; consider adding on a pull‑back to ~\$560 if the price tests that support level, with a stop just above the recent high (~\$585) to protect against a quick‑sell on an earnings miss.