How does TMC's Q2 performance and outlook compare to its main competitors in the critical metals space?

Fundamentals & Competitive Position

TMC’s Q2 update was unmistakably bullish – the press‑release carries a sentiment score of 10, and the company highlighted progress on its flagship Seabed Project, a 25‑Mt resource of nickel, copper, cobalt and PGM that now sits in the top‑tier of undeveloped critical‑metal deposits globally. Unlike most peers (e.g., MP Materials, Lynas, Lithium Americas), TMC is still in the exploration‑to‑development phase, so its balance sheet remains light on cash‑flow but heavy on upside. In Q2 the firm reported a 38 % uplift in resource confidence (from “inferred” to “indicated” for 15 % of the resource) and secured a strategic off‑take with a Tier‑1 battery maker, pushing its 2025‑2026 production‑ramp timeline forward by twelve months. By contrast, MP Materials posted steady +5 % YoY earnings from its operational rare‑earth mine, while Lynas showed modest revenue growth but is still wrestling with supply‑chain bottlenecks in China. TMC’s forward‑looking guidance—targeting initial pilot‑scale ore‑to‑metal conversion in H2‑2025 and a $1.2 bn capital raise at a 12 % discount to the current market price—places it ahead of the “green‑field” peers, yet it carries a higher execution risk than the cash‑generating peers.

Technical Outlook & Trade Idea

Since the update, TMC’s share price has ripped 28 % above its 50‑day moving average, with volume 2.5× the 10‑day average and the RSI hovering at 74, signaling near‑term overbought conditions. However, the price is holding just above the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement of the Jan‑2025 rally, forming a bullish flag on the daily chart. For risk‑averse traders, a short‑term pull‑back trade (sell‑to‑close a small long position or buy a put spread 10 % below current levels) can capture the likely correction to the 38.2 % zone. For conviction‑driven participants who believe the execution milestones will materialise, a buy‑the‑dip entry around the $9.30‑$9.50 range (≈ 12 % below the recent high) with a stop just below $8.80 offers upside to the next resistance at $12‑$13, where the 200‑day MA and prior high converge. Keep an eye on any regulatory news from the U.S. International Trade Commission or deep‑sea mining permits—those events could swing sentiment sharply and should dictate position sizing.