What potential financial exposure could Telix face if the allegations are proven true?

If a court or regulator ultimately finds that Telix Pharmaceuticals materially misled investors, the company could be hit with a multi‑layered financial hit. First, a securities‑class‑action settlement typically runs into the high‑tens of millions of dollars for a market‑cap‑size biotech (TLX trades around $1‑1.5 billion). In addition to cash settlements, the firm may be ordered to disgorge any ill‑gotten proceeds, pay civil penalties, and reimburse shareholders for losses – a figure that can quickly eclipse the settlement amount if the stock has fallen sharply after the news. Litigation costs (legal fees, forensic accounting, and possible restatement expenses) often add another 10‑15 % of the total exposure. In the worst‑case scenario—if the SEC or a state authority brings a separate enforcement action—telescoping fines and a possible “bad actor” bar could further erode equity value, potentially wiping out 15‑20 % of the market cap in a short‑run sell‑off.

From a trading standpoint, the risk‑adjusted downside is now priced into the chart: TLX has broken below its 50‑day moving average and is testing the $2.20‑$2.10 support band, while the RSI is in oversold territory (~30) but showing bearish divergence. Volume spikes on each news drop suggest that investors are exiting on fear rather than fundamentals. Unless the company can provide a credible rebuttal or negotiate a modest settlement, a short‑bias play—either outright short or buying put spreads 30‑45 days out—aligns with the heightened legal exposure. Conversely, a contrarian long could be justified only if you anticipate a rapid settlement at the lower end of typical biotech class‑action ranges (≈$10‑$15 m) and a subsequent bounce; in that case, a limited‑risk call spread positioned just above current resistance (~$2.60) would capture the upside while capping downside. Monitoring the SEC docket and any corporate disclosures over the next 2‑3 weeks will be crucial for refining the position.