THRY

How should we adjust our valuation model for Thryv based on the anticipated outcomes of this conference?

Created August 07, 2025 at 01:13 PM

Executive Summary

The “Grow 2025” conference is Thryv’s first flagship, two‑day, small‑business‑owner event. While a single live event will not fundamentally reshape the company’s long‑term fundamentals, it can generate a short‑to‑mid‑term uplift in revenue, brand equity, and customer acquisition efficiency that should be reflected in the valuation model.

Below is a step‑by‑step framework for incorporating the expected financial impact of the conference into your existing DCF/relative‑valuation model, followed by quantitative “what‑if” scenarios, key assumptions, and risk considerations.

1. How the Conference May Translate into Financial Benefits

Potential Benefit	Mechanism	Likely Timeline	Impact on Model
New subscriber acquisition	Attendees experience a three‑step growth framework → higher propensity to buy Thryv’s marketing‑sales SaaS (monthly/annual plans).	0‑12 months (immediate sign‑ups and pipeline that closes within the next 3‑6 months).	Increase in revenues (ARR) and customer count → higher growth rate in the first 1‑2 years.
Upsell / Cross‑sell of higher‑tier plans	Existing Thryv customers attend for networking, receive new product demos.	0‑12 months (immediate upgrades).	Boost to average revenue per user (ARPU) and gross margin (higher‑margin plans).
Reduced CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)	Event‑based marketing replaces some paid‑media spend; word‑of‑mouth and referral pipeline.	0‑24 months (as the event brand builds).	Lower sales & marketing expense ratio, improving operating leverage.
Brand & Network Effects	Position Thryv as the “go‑to” platform for small‑business growth, encouraging ecosystem partners, referrals, and future conference series.	12‑36 months (cumulative).	Higher customer lifetime value (LTV) and potentially lower churn.
One‑off event profit	Ticket sales, sponsorships, and ancillary services (e.g., on‑site consulting).	2025 Q4 (the conference itself).	Small non‑recurring cash‑flow bump (positive but modest relative to total enterprise value).

2. Quantitative Impact – Building a “Conference Add‑On” Model

2.1. Core Inputs (reasonable ranges based on comparable B2B SaaS events)

Variable	Base‑Case Estimate	Reasonable Range
Number of attendees (incl. paid tickets, sponsors, partners)	1,200	800‑1,500
Ticket price average (incl. early‑bird, sponsor packages)	$500	$350‑$700
Direct event revenue (tickets + sponsorship)	$600 k	$460 k‑$850 k
Conversion rate to paid Thryv subscription (attendee → new paying customer)	7 %	4‑10 %
Average contract value (ACV) for a new subscriber	$2,400 (annual)	$1,800‑$3,000
Upsell rate among existing Thryv customers attending	12 %	8‑20 %
Incremental ARPU uplift from upsells	$300 per upgraded customer	$200‑$500
Incremental CAC reduction (per new customer)	$150 saved vs. paid‑media CAC	$50‑$250
Churn reduction (basis points) from brand effect	–10 bps	–5 bps to –15 bps

2.2. Resulting Cash‑Flow Add‑On (Year‑by‑Year)

Year	Cash‑Flow Item	Calculation	Incremental FY Cash Flow
2025 (Q4)	Direct event profit (ticket + sponsorship)	$600k – event cost (~$350k)	+$250k
2026	New subscriber revenue (year‑1)	1,200 × 7 % = 84 new customers × $2,400 ACV = $201,600	+$0.20 M
	Upsell revenue (year‑1)	300 existing customers × 12 % = 36 upgrades × $300 = $10,800	+$0.01 M
	CAC saving	84 × $150 = $12,600	+$0.013 M
	Net operating expense impact (lower sales‑&‑marketing %)	~1 % of FY revenue (≈$30 M) = $300k	+$0.30 M
	Total incremental FY‑2026 cash flow		≈+$0.52 M
2027	Retention of 2026 new customers (12‑month renewal) – assume 90 % retention, 10 % churn uplift	84 × 90 % × $2,400 = $181,440	+$0.18 M
	Upsell churn impact (lower churn)	0.0010 × FY revenue (≈$30 M) = $30k	+$0.03 M
	Total incremental FY‑2027 cash flow		≈+$0.21 M
2028‑2030	Diminishing repeat‑purchase effect; assume 50 % of 2026 lift rolls forward each year.		~+$0.10‑$0.12 M per year

Bottom‑line: In a base‑case scenario the conference contributes roughly $0.8‑$1.0 M of incremental free‑cash‑flow over the next three years—about 0.5‑0.8 % of Thryv’s projected FY2026‑2028 EBITDA (≈$140‑$150 M).

Upside scenario (higher attendance, 10 % conversion, larger ACV) can push the lift to $2‑$3 M of cash‑flow (≈1‑2 % of EBITDA).

Downside scenario (low conversion, high event cost) could be breakeven to –$0.2 M in the first year.

3. How to Incorporate These Numbers into Your Valuation Model

3.1. Discounted Cash‑Flow (DCF) Model

Add a “Conference‑Related Cash‑Flow” line item to the free‑cash‑flow schedule for 2025‑2028 (or longer if you expect a recurring series).
Adjust revenue growth assumptions for FY2026‑2028:
- Base‑case: bump the revenue growth rate by +0.2‑0.3 ppt (reflects the additional ARR from new customers).
- Upside: +0.5‑0.6 ppt.
- Downside: 0‑0.1 ppt (if the event is a cost centre).
Reduce Sales & Marketing (S&M) expense as a percentage of revenue:
- Base‑case: ‑0.5 ppt (reflecting saved CAC).
- Upside: ‑0.8 ppt.
Adjust churn assumptions (and thus the “customer‐retention‑related” revenue line) by ‑10 bps in the base case, ‑15 bps upside.
Re‑run the DCF with the same WACC (≈7‑8 % for Thryv) and terminal growth (2‑3 %).
- The incremental enterprise value from the conference in the base case is roughly $30‑$45 M (present value of $0.8‑$1.0 M over 5‑years at 7.5 % discount).
- Upside could add $80‑$120 M; downside could be neutral or a slight $5‑$10 M reduction if event costs outweigh revenue lift.

3.2. Relative Valuation (Multiples)

If you use EV/EBITDA or EV/Revenue multiples:

Adjust forecast EBITDA (or Revenue) for the incremental cash‑flow.
Re‑calculate the implied multiple using the new EV (old EV + PV of lift).
The resulting multiple shift is modest (usually <0.2‑0.3 × the historical multiple) but can be material when the stock trades on a tight multiple range.

3.3. Scenario‑Based Sensitivity Table

Scenario	Attendees	Conv. Rate	ACV	Incremental FY‑2026 Cash Flow	PV (5 yr, 7.5 % WACC)	Impact on EV*
Base	1,200	7 %	$2,400	$0.52 M	$2.0 M	+$2‑$3 M
Upside	1,500	10 %	$3,000	$1.1 M	$4.5 M	+$4‑$6 M
Downside	800	4 %	$1,800	$0.08 M	$0.3 M	±$0 M (breakeven)
Loss	800	2 %	$1,800	–$0.15 M (higher cost)	–$0.5 M	–$0.5‑$1 M

*Impact on Enterprise Value = Present value of net cash‑flow lift (or drag) added to current EV.

4. Qualitative Adjustments & Narrative

Even if the cash‑flow impact appears modest, the conference provides strategic levers that can be built into a longer‑term narrative:

Narrative Element	Why It Matters for Valuation
Thought‑leadership positioning – Thryv becomes the go‑to platform for small‑business growth education.	Enhances brand equity → can command price premiums and higher renewal rates.
Network & partner ecosystem – Sponsors (e.g., banks, payment processors) may co‑market, creating new referral pipelines.	Adds non‑organic revenue streams not captured in current forecasts.
Event‑as‑a‑Product – Potential to turn Grow 2025 into an annual series (or a subscription‑based virtual academy).	Generates recurring non‑SaaS revenue and diversifies the revenue mix.
Data capture – Attendee sign‑ups provide enriched firmographic data, improving targeting efficiency and AI‑driven product enhancements.	Improves margin on future customer acquisition.
Employee morale & sales‑force motivation – Direct interaction with end‑users can sharpen product roadmap.	Leads to product‑market fit improvements and may accelerate future upsell opportunities.

When you update the valuation, make a qualitative “strategic premium” component (e.g., +5‑10 % to terminal value) to reflect these longer‑run, harder‑to‑quantify benefits, especially if management signals intent to repeat or expand the event.

5. Practical Steps for Model Implementation

Create a “Conference” worksheet in your model.
Input the variables above (attendance, conversion, ACV, ticket revenue, event cost).
Link the output incremental cash flow to the main FCF schedule for FY2025‑2028.
Build sensitivity tables (attendance vs. conversion) and scenario toggles (Base/Upside/Downside).
Re‑run the DCF and capture:
- Change in Enterprise Value (ΔEV).
- New Implied Multiple (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue).
Document assumptions in the model notes and flag the conference as a non‑recurring item (unless you plan to repeat).

6. Risks & Mitigants

Risk	Impact	Mitigation / Monitoring
Low conversion (e.g., 2‑3 %)	Cash‑flow lift disappears; event becomes cost centre.	Track sign‑up pipeline, adjust CAC assumptions post‑event.
Higher-than‑expected event cost (venue, speakers)	Negative near‑term cash flow.	Use a fixed cost cap in the model; run a downside scenario.
Cannibalization of existing sales‑marketing spend	Net acquisition doesn’t grow; only shifts channel.	Compare total new‑customer count vs. pre‑event forecast.
One‑off nature – no repeat conferences.	Benefits are limited to 2025‑2026.	Treat lift as a single‑period add‑on; avoid inflating long‑term growth rates.
External macro‑headwinds (recession reduces SMB spend).	Even if conversion is strong, customers may churn.	Incorporate a macroeconomic sensitivity on churn/renewal rates.

7. Bottom‑Line Recommendation

Add a modest, time‑bound cash‑flow uplift (≈$0.8‑$1.0 M in present value) to the DCF for the base case.
Adjust growth and margin inputs for FY2026‑2028 as outlined (revenue growth +0.2 ppt; S&M expense –0.5 ppt; churn –10 bps).
Perform scenario analysis (upside to $2‑$3 M PV, downside breakeven) and disclose the sensitivity in your valuation write‑up.
Qualitatively credit the event with a strategic premium (5‑10 % of terminal value) if management confirms intent to make Grow an annual or recurring product.

With these changes, the valuation will capture both the tangible cash‑flow contribution of Grow 2025 and the intangible strategic benefits that could accelerate Thryv’s long‑run growth trajectory.