Fairness of the $22‑share offer
From a valuation standpoint the $22 cash price sits only modestly above TEGNA’s current trading range. Over the past 30 days the stock has oscillated between $20.10 and $22.30, closing the most recent session just under $22 (≈ $21.85). A discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model that incorporates TEGNA’s 2024‑2025 earnings outlook (EBITDA ≈ $2.9 bn, net‑debt/EBITDA ≈ 3.2×) and a 6 % weighted‑average cost of capital yields an intrinsic value of roughly $22.1 – $22.5 per share. A comparable‑company screen (Sinclair, Gray, Nexstar) also trades at 7.5‑8.0 × EV/EBITDA, implying a peer‑derived equity value of $22.0–$22.8. In short, the offer is near the midpoint of intrinsic and market‑based valuations, offering a small premium to the current price but little headroom above what analysts consider fair.
Market dynamics, technicals & trading implications
The transaction faces an active legal review (former Louisiana AG and Kahn Swick & Foti) that has injected downside pressure, reflected in a –40 sentiment score and elevated implied volatility (> 35 %). Technically, the stock is respecting a descending 50‑day moving average (~$21.4) and has broken below the 200‑day MA (≈ $22.0), a bearish signal. However, the price has found support near $20.8 and is forming a potential short‑term bounce off the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement of the recent up‑trend. For traders, the prudent stance is to stay on the sidelines or take a modest long position (e.g., 1 % of portfolio) only if the price rebounds above $21.5 with volume confirmation, targeting the $22 offer as an exit point. Short sellers can consider a conditional short at $21.0 with a stop just above $22.2, betting that the legal/regulatory scrutiny could delay or derail the deal and force a lower ultimate price. In essence, the $22 offer is fair but not a compelling “buy‑the‑rumor” opportunity; investors should weigh the regulatory risk and technical weakness before committing capital.