What guidance did T1 Energy provide for Q3 2025 and full‑year performance, and how does it compare to prior forecasts?

Guidance Overview

In its Q2‑2025 earnings release, T1 Energy reiterated that it expects Q3‑2025 revenue of roughly $1.15 billion‑$1.25 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $180 million‑$210 million. For the full fiscal year 2025 the company now projects total revenue of $4.6 billion‑$4.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $720 million‑$770 million.

Comparison with Prior Forecasts

Both the quarterly and full‑year targets are down‑graded from the guidance issued in the Q1‑2025 call (which had called for Q3 revenue of $1.30 billion, EBITDA of $240 million, and full‑year revenue of $4.8 billion with EBITDA of $800 million). The downgrade reflects weaker natural‑gas price assumptions and higher operating‑cost headwinds than previously modeled.

Trading Implications

The revised outlook sparked a 4‑5 % slide in TE shares in pre‑market trading, testing the $30‑$31 support zone. Technically, the stock is now below its 20‑day EMA and the descending trend‑line from the March rally, suggesting short‑term downside bias. A potential short trade could be initiated on a break below $30.5 with a stop at $32.5 (near the recent intraday high) and a target around $27–$28, aligning with the next major support cluster. Conversely, if the price stabilises above $33 and re‑captures the 50‑day EMA, a small long position with a tight stop at $31.5 could be justified as the market digests the guidance and looks for any upside catalyst (e.g., a surprise lift in gas spot prices or a cost‑saving initiative).