What is the timeline for the gas offtake agreement and when can we expect revenue to be recognized from the SS Pilot Project?
Timeline for the gas offtake agreement
The NT Government’s approval of the SS Pilot Project under the BUG legislation is a prerequisite for a formal gas‑sales agreement with the Northern Territory Gas (NTG). In most Australian‑NT gas contracts, the offtake (“GSA”) is signed and becomes effective within 6–12 months after regulatory approval—i.e., sometime in the late‑2024 to early‑2025 window for Tamboran. Management is likely to finalize the long‑term GSA shortly after the approval, as the deal is already “secured” by the BJV and simply awaits the contractual execution.
Revenue‑recognition timing
Revenue on the SS Pilot Project will be recognized only when gas is physically delivered and invoiced under the GSA. Assuming the offtake agreement is executed by early 2025, the first deliveries (and thus the first recognized revenue) are expected to begin in the FY 2025 reporting period (around H1 2025). The pilot’s scale is modest, so early cash‑flow will be incremental, but it will establish a baseline for future scaling of the joint‑venture’s gas sales.
Trading implications
* Catalyst watch: The signing of the GSA and the first gas delivery constitute key catalysts. A positive update (e.g., an earlier‑than‑expected start‑up) could trigger a short‑to‑mid‑term upside in Tamboran’s equity, while delays would pressure the share price.
* Technical view: On the daily chart, the stock is holding above the 200‑day moving average and has formed a bullish flag. Breakouts above the recent high (~USD 2.15) with volume support would confirm the rally on the regulatory milestone. Conversely, a breach of the 50‑day MA (~USD 2.00) could open a retracement if the project’s timeline slips.
* Actionable insight: Consider a long‑position or buying on pull‑backs at the 200‑day MA, targeting the next GSA‑related milestone (late 2024 – early 2025). Place a stop just below the 50‑day MA to guard against any downside from missed delivery dates.
In short, expect the gas offtake agreement to be sealed by early 2025, with the first revenue stream appearing in FY 2025. The upcoming contractual and delivery updates should be the primary drivers for the stock in the next 3–6 months.