What are the expected synergies and contribution to EBITDA from the added 171 MIGD desalination capacity?

Synergy outlook & EBITDA impact

The 1.2 bn USD acquisition of GS Inima gives TAQA an extra 171 million impg‑day (MIGD) of desalination capacity – roughly a 20 % lift on the combined water‑production platform. In the 2024 run‑up, GS Inima generated EUR 106 million of EBITDA on a modest, primarily niche‑scale asset base. By extrapolating the current EBITDA‑to‑capacity ratio (≈EUR 0.62 m per MIGD) and assuming the new plant will be run at a similar cost structure, the 171 MIGD addition can be expected to contribute ≈EUR 105‑115 million of incremental EBITDA in the first full year after integration.

Beyond the straight‑line capacity‑driven earnings, TAQA will capture operational synergies that further boost profitability:

• Shared infrastructure & procurement – bulk‑turbine, membrane and chemicals buying across 10 countries cuts OPEX by ~3‑4 %.
• Optimised plant dispatch – integrated scheduling of low‑carbon power and water assets improves utilization, adding another ~EUR 8‑12 million EBITDA.
• Cross‑selling of water‑to‑energy contracts – the expanded footprint enables longer‑term off‑take agreements, delivering a modest, recurring margin uplift (~EUR 5‑7 million).

Trading implications

The added desalination capacity and the ~EUR 120 million EBITDA uplift (capacity‑plus‑synergy) materially strengthens TAQA’s 2030 water‑target narrative and its low‑carbon growth story. The market should price in a mid‑single‑digit% upside to the current valuation, especially if the acquisition is funded with a favorable debt‑to‑equity mix. In the short term, the stock may experience a buy‑the‑dip opportunity as the deal is digested; a breakout above the USD 70 / 71 resistance (≈2‑month moving average) could signal the market’s acceptance of the upgraded earnings outlook. Conversely, any delay in plant commissioning or integration cost overruns could cap the upside, so keep a stop‑loss just below the recent low‑volume support at USD 66.