How will the slight decline in net sales and the negative currency effect affect Systemair's short‑term cash flow and guidance?

Systemair’s modest 0.6 % dip in Q1 net sales – compounded by a 6.3 % adverse currency impact – will most likely tighten its near‑term operating cash‑flow generation. The headline decline is small, but the foreign‑exchange drag indicates that a sizeable share of the sales base is exposed to a stronger SEK, which depresses the cash collected from overseas customers. Assuming the cost base remains largely unchanged, the adjusted EBIT margin will be squeezed, translating into lower working‑capital releases and a weaker cash conversion cycle. In practice we can expect quarterly cash‑flow from operations to be modestly below the SEK 2.0‑2.2 bn range that analysts have been modelling for the full fiscal year, with the Q1 figure probably landing in the SEK 600‑650 m corridor.

From a guidance standpoint, management will likely temper its outlook for FY 2025/26, emphasizing “cautious optimism” on organic growth while highlighting the currency headwind as a temporary factor. The market will price this as a slight downward revision to the 2025‑26 guidance on both EBITDA and free cash flow, which may pressure the stock toward its recent support around SEK 190‑200. Technically, the share is testing a descending 20‑day moving average and a bearish flag on the 50‑day chart, suggesting short‑term downside momentum. Traders could look for entry on any bounce off the support zone with a tight stop just below SEK 185, or consider short positions if the price breaks below the 20‑day MA on increased volume, betting on a further pull‑back as the company works through the currency‑induced cash‑flow drag.