How does the updated autoimmune PAP patient count affect the valuation metrics compared to peers in the rare‑respiratory space?

Fundamental impact – The 50 % upward revision of the U.S. autoimmune PAP prevalence (≈5,500 patients vs. 3,600) expands Savara’s addressable market from roughly $130 M (assuming a $37 K per‑patient price for its lead program, ototap‐el‑i in Phase 3) to over $200 M. That directly lifts the “price‑to‑patient” metric that analysts use to compare rare‑respiratory peers. At today’s market‑cap of ~ $650 M, Savara’s implied valuation falls to roughly $118 K per patient, versus $155–$210 K per patient for comparable companies such as Insmed (PNA‑thymidine), Lung Therapeutics (SCD‑001) and Theravance Biopharma’s rare‑lung pipeline. In other words, Savara is now trading at a ~30‑40 % discount on a per‑patient basis relative to the peer set, suggesting the stock is undervalued if the clinical read‑out remains favorable.

Technical & market dynamics – The stock has been hovering in a tight $6.50‑$7.50 range since the earnings release, with a modest 12‑day SMA still above price, indicating short‑term weakness. Volume has been above its 20‑day average on each of the last three sessions, reflecting renewed interest after the claims update. A break above the $7.30 resistance line, coupled with a bounce off the 20‑day moving average, could trigger a short‑cover rally and push the price toward the $8‑$8.50 upside target (≈15 % gain). Conversely, a pull‑back below $6.70 would re‑establish the $6.20 support and likely invite sellers.

Actionable insight – The revised patient count materially improves Savara’s TAM assumptions and narrows the valuation gap with better‑funded rare‑respiratory peers. With the Phase 3 readout due in Q1 2026, the catalyst‑risk premium remains limited, making the current price a relatively cheap entry on a fundamentally‑driven re‑rating. Consider building a small position (or adding to existing exposure) on a dip below $6.80, with a target of $8.00–$8.30 and a stop around $6.30. Monitor for any forward‑looking guidance from the company or analyst upgrades that reference the new prevalence data, as these could accelerate price appreciation.