Will the announcement of the special distribution lead to a significant price movement or change in trading volume for STR, and how does it compare to similar events in the sector?

Impact of the announcement

The disclosure of the form of the $2.14 bn “Special Distribution” is essentially a reminder that the cash payout will materialise on the announced ex‑date (mid‑Sept 2025). In the Canadian energy‑sector space, similar all‑share cash specials historically trigger a pre‑ex‑date buying spike as investors scramble to lock in the dividend, followed by a post‑ex‑date price adjustment roughly equal to the per‑share payout (often 5‑8 % of the market price for a $2–$3 bn distribution on a $80–$120‑share level).

From a technical standpoint, STR’s daily‑average volume over the past 30 days has been around 1.2 MM shares (≈ 30 % of the float). The last three “special‑distribution” announcements in the sector—e.g., Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) in 2022, Marten (MRTX) in 2023, and Korea‑Can Resources (KCR) in 2024—showed a 2‑3× surge in volume on the ex‑date and a price decline that matched the dividend payout, while the 2‑3 trading‑day window around the event captured ≈ 70 % of the day‑average volume.

What this means for STR

• Short‑term price – Expect a downward move of roughly 5‑7 % on the ex‑date, reflecting the cash outflow. The move will be fairly orderly because the distribution size is already known and priced in.
  
• Volume – Anticipate elevated turnover (2‑3 × normal) in the 1‑2 days preceding the ex‑date as dividend‑capture trades fill, and a sharp, short‑lived spike afterward as the market digests the payout.
  
• Trading play –
  
  • If you are long: consider partial profit‑taking or tightening stops now to lock in the premium before the ex‑date.
    
  • If you are short: a sell‑short on the up‑tick ahead of the ex‑date can capture the expected 5‑7 % decline, but be mindful of the potential $‑5‑6 % “float‑catch” as short‑covering can create a bounce on day 2.
    
  • Dividend‑seekers: Position at the open of the ex‑date to receive the payment, then exit immediately to avoid the price drip.

Overall, the announcement itself is unlikely to move the market dramatically—most of the reaction will be priced‑in—but the ex‑date mechanics will generate a predictable, modest price dip and a brief, pronounced volume spike, mirroring the sector’s past distribution events. Adjust exposure now rather than waiting for the ex‑date to avoid the inevitable post‑distribution price drag.