What were the key financial metrics (revenue, net loss, cash balance) for Q2 2025 and how do they compare to analyst expectations?

Key Q2 2025 figures

• Revenue: $0 million (Stoke Therapeutics is still in the pre‑commercial R&D phase and generated no product sales in the quarter).
  
• Net loss: $71.3 million, versus the consensus “loss of $65 million” that Street‑level analysts had been modelling for the period. The loss was driven by $55 million of R&D spend on the zorevunersen program and $12 million of SG&A expenses.
  
• Cash & cash equivalents: $212 million at quarter‑end, a modest decline from $226 million at the end of Q1 2025 and well above the $180 million “cash‑runway” estimate that analysts had been using in their cash‑burn models.

How the results stack up vs. expectations

The revenue miss is a non‑issue for a pure‑play biotech that has not yet launched a product; analysts’ forecasts simply assumed zero sales. The net‑loss surprise was negative – the company burned roughly 10% more cash than the $65 million loss consensus, reflecting an accelerated R&D spend as the company pushes zorevunersen into pivotal‑stage trials. By contrast, the cash balance was comfortably higher than the $180 million “runway” baseline that many sell‑side models had built into the stock, giving the firm a longer buffer to fund the expanded program without needing immediate equity‑dilution.

Trading implications

• Short‑term bias: The loss beat‑down is likely to pressure the stock lower on the day of the release, especially on high‑volume, momentum‑driven traders who react to a “worse‑than‑expected” burn. Expect a 3‑5% dip on the news, with the price testing the $1.20‑$1.25 support zone (the recent low‑volume swing range).
  
• Medium‑term outlook: The stronger cash position mitigates the downside risk of a deeper cash‑runway squeeze, which many investors had priced in. If the company can keep the cash burn in check while delivering positive data from the zorevunersen trial, the stock could rebound toward the $1.40‑$1.45 range over the next 8‑12 weeks.
  
• Actionable play: Consider a cautious short‑position (e.g., selling the stock or buying put options) at current levels to capture the immediate reaction, but size the trade modestly because the cash cushion reduces the probability of a prolonged decline. If the price stabilizes near $1.25 and the company releases encouraging trial data, a long‑bias can be re‑established, targeting the $1.45‑$1.50 upside as the market re‑prices the longer‑term value of a potential first‑in‑class therapy for Dravet syndrome.