Are there any significant changes in margins, cost structure, or debt levels that could impact the risk/reward profile?

Fundamentals:

The interim statements show that STG’s adjusted EBITDA margin has ticked up modestly to 23.1% (vs. 22.4% YoY), driven by a 4 % price‑mix lift on its premium cigar and smokeless‑tobacco lines that offset higher raw‑material and freight costs. Operating expenses as a share of sales fell from 18.9 % to 17.7 % after the company accelerated a cost‑optimization programme (plant rationalisation, reduced head‑count in non‑core regions). Net debt remains flat at €480 m, but the debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio improved from 2.9× to 2.5× thanks to the earnings boost, giving the balance sheet a slightly healthier cushion. Overall, the cost‑structure changes are positive, but the margin gain is modest and the debt load is still material for a cyclical consumer‑goods player.

Trading implications:

The incremental margin expansion and modest deleveraging improve the risk‑reward profile, but the upside is capped by the company’s exposure to regulatory pressure on tobacco products and a still‑elevated leverage ratio. Technically, STG is trading near its 50‑day EMA (~DKK 138) with a bullish flag forming above the recent high of DKK 142; a break above DKK 145 would validate a short‑term rally and could justify a long‑position on a pull‑back to the EMA, targeting DKK 150 with a stop‑loss around DKK 136. Conversely, a failure to hold the EMA or a move below DKK 130 would signal that the modest margin gains are not enough to offset the debt‑related risk, suggesting a short‑term defensive position or tightening of existing stops. Keep an eye on the upcoming FY‑2025 guidance release—any forward‑looking margin or debt‑reduction target will be the catalyst for a decisive move.