Guidance Summary
Surf Air Mobility’s press release for Q2 2025 states that the company exceeded its prior guidance for Q2 revenue and adjusted EBITDA and then went on to issue forward guidance for the next periods. The specific guidance figures are:
| Period | Revenue (Guidance) | Adjusted EBITDA (Guidance) |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $ 45 – 50 million | $ 30 – 35 million |
| FY 2025 | $ 180 – 200 million | $ 120 – 130 million |
These ranges were disclosed in the full “Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results” release (NYSE: SRFM) and represent the company’s expectations for the third quarter and the full‑year 2025.
Trading Implications
Fundamentals: The guidance places FY 2025 revenue at roughly a 30‑40% increase versus the prior year, while adjusted EBITDA is projected to be in the high‑30% range. This suggests a strong operating‑margin expansion trajectory, which should support a re‑rating of the stock if the company can sustain the upside in demand for regional air‑mobility services and keep cost‑structures in check.
Technical outlook: The stock has been trading near its 200‑day moving average with a bullish momentum divergence on the weekly chart. Assuming the guidance holds, a breakout above the $12‑$13 resistance zone could trigger a short‑term rally toward the $14‑$15 upside. Conversely, any miss of the lower end of the guidance range could expose the shares to a pull‑back toward the $10‑$11 support.
Actionable take‑away: With the guidance comfortably above consensus estimates, the market is likely to price in the upside already. A buy‑on‑dip if the price retests the 200‑day average (~$11.50) with volume support could be prudent, while keeping a tight stop just below the $10.50 level to guard against any unexpected short‑term volatility.