How will the $11.1 million NOAA contract impact Spire’s upcoming revenue guidance and earnings forecasts?

Fundamental impact

The NOAA award adds roughly $11.1 million of locked‑in revenue (and associated data‑service fees) that will be recognized over the 12‑month contract period, beginning Sept 2025. For a company whose 2024‑2025 sales are projected in the $250‑$300 million range, the deal lifts the top‑line by about 4‑5 % on a “near‑term” basis and by a comparable share when the contract is fully reflected in the FY‑26 guidance. Because the agreement is for a repeat‑able GNSS‑RO service, the margin profile mirrors Spire’s existing GNSS‑RO business – a high‑gross‑margin, low‑CAPEX line‑item. The incremental gross profit should be roughly 30‑35 % of the contract value, feeding directly into net income and EPS. Consequently, management is likely to raise its 2025 revenue and EPS guidance modestly (e.g., $5‑6 million of incremental top‑line and a few cents of incremental EPS) to incorporate the NOAA contract, which should tighten the company’s earnings‑growth outlook and shrink any existing downside earnings‑gap.

Market dynamics & technical view

The contract signals a secure, government‑backed cash flow stream that lowers the volatility of Spire’s revenue base and improves the credibility of its 2025 guidance. In response, the market has already re‑priced part of the upside – the news opened with a ~3 % pre‑market gain and the stock is holding near its $6.30–$6.45 range, a key resistance level that aligns with the upper end of its 52‑wk high. If the upcoming guidance revision confirms the contract’s contribution, a breakout above $6.45 could trigger a short‑term rally toward the $7.00–$7.20 zone (≈30 % upside from today’s price), offering a clear entry point on the pull‑back to the $6.20‑$6.25 support band.

Actionable insight

• Buy on a dip if SPIR retests $6.20–$6.25 with healthy volume, targeting $6.45–$6.55 on the next upward move; upside to $7.00+ is plausible if the guidance beat is material.
  
• Hold for investors already positioned, as the contract improves earnings visibility and may lift the forward‑looking PE multiple back toward the sector median (≈18‑20×).
  
• Watch for the June earnings release: a up‑beat 2025 guidance beat (revenue +$10‑$12 M, EPS +$0.03‑$0.04) will likely be the catalyst that validates the trade thesis and could push the stock into fresh rally territory.
  

Overall, the NOAA contract is a modest yet high‑margin tailwind that should lead management to nudge up its 2025 guidance, tightening earnings forecasts and sharpening the upside potential for the stock.