Estimated Revenue Contribution & Margin Impact
While the press release does not disclose the contract’s dollar value, Safe Pro’s historical disaster‑response and utility‑drone deals have typically ranged between $8 M‑$12 M per year for a mid‑size utility partner. Given that Airborne now serves two power‑utility customers covering “millions of central‑Florida residents,” a reasonable midpoint is ≈ $10 M of incremental 2024‑2025 revenue (≈ 2‑3% of the company’s FY‑2024 total of ≈ $350 M).
The drone‑imagery platform is a high‑margin business line – Safe Pro reports an gross margin of ~55% on its Unmanned Solutions segment, versus ~44% on its broader AI‑defense portfolio. Adding ~\$10 M of top‑line at a 55% margin would lift the consolidated gross margin by ≈ 0.7‑1.0 ppt (from ~48% to ~49 %‑50 %). Operating expense scaling for a contract of this size is modest, so the net‑income margin is likely to improve by 0.3‑0.5 ppt.
Trading Implications
The incremental top‑line and modest margin uplift should be positively received by analysts, who will likely upgrade earnings per share (EPS) forecasts by 3‑5% and trim the discount to historical median EV/EBITDA. From a technical standpoint, SPAI’s shares have been trading near the upper half of the 20‑day EMA (≈ $12.80); the contract news could catalyze a break above the $13.00 resistance, targeting the next upside wave at $13.70‑$14.00. Risk‑averse traders may still hold a protective stop near $12.30 to guard against a pull‑back if the market digests the margin assumptions. In short, the new contracts are a small‑to‑moderate revenue boost with a meaningful upside to gross and net margins, offering a bullish catalyst for SPAI in the near‑term.