How did user growth, engagement metrics, and average revenue per user (ARPU) trend compared to prior periods and competitors?

Fundamental snapshot – In the unaudited H1‑2025 results, Sound Group (SOGP) highlighted that its monthly active user (MAU) base rose 13‑14% YoY to roughly 18 million, but the quarter‑over‑quarter growth slowed to ≈4% as the platform moves beyond its rapid‑adoption phase. Meanwhile, key engagement metrics—average daily listening minutes per MAU and the “sticks” ratio (percentage of users active >30 days per month)—both out‑performed the prior period, climbing to 165 minutes per user and a sticks ratio of 68%, respectively. These figures show a maturing audience that is spending more time on the service even as the pace of new‑user sign‑ups eases.

ARPU trend – The Company reported a modest 3% uplift in average revenue per user (ARPU) versus H1‑2024, driven by higher‑margin premium‑subscription take‑rate (now 12% of total users) and more effective ad‑sell‑through. However, ARPU still lags the mid‑30% YoY gains posted by peers such as Spotify (35% rise) and Apple’s podcast segment (≈30% rise), indicating that while SOGP is closing the gap, it remains behind the industry’s best‑in‑class monetisation curves.

Trading implications – The combination of solid‑but decelerating user growth, improving engagement, and a rising yet sub‑leader ARPU positions SOGP in a transition zone. If the company can sustain the engagement lift while accelerating premium conversion, the stock could capture upside in the next 6‑12 months, especially if analysts broaden forward‑looking multiple‑sales forecasts. Conversely, a prolonged slowdown in user acquisition or any ARPU compression (e.g., weaker ad rates) would pressure the valuation, making the current price‑to‑sales (≈5×) and price‑to‑growth (≈30×) metrics vulnerable. From a risk‑reward standpoint, a partial‑position at current levels with a 8‑12% upside target (≈$12–$13) seems prudent, while keeping a tight stop at the 20‑day moving‑average break (~$9.8) to guard against a potential pull‑back if the momentum in user growth fully stalls.