How will the project's timeline and commissioning schedule impact the company's guidance for the next quarter?

Impact on guidance

The turbine’s delivery to Georgia Power’s Plant Yates marks the first new natural‑gas unit the Southern Company (SO) has added in more than a decade. Because the machine still has to be installed, tested and brought online – a process that typically runs 3‑4 months for a Mitsubishi‑class heavy‑duty unit – the bulk of the capacity‑related earnings will not be reflected in the current quarter’s results. Consequently, management is likely to keep next‑quarter guidance modest, flagging the project as a “near‑term capital‑expenditure” item that will depress short‑term earnings per share (EPS) versus the prior quarter.

Trading implications

• Short‑term: The market will price in a near‑term drag from the $300‑$400 million cap‑ex spend and the absence of incremental gas‑generation revenue until the turbine is commissioned (most likely in Q4 2025). Expect the stock to trade at a slight discount to its 12‑month forward‑PE, reflecting this temporary earnings dip.
  
• Medium‑term: Once the unit is online, the added 500‑600 MW of dispatchable capacity should lift capacity‑utilization rates and margin on the company’s gas‑fleet, providing upside to Q4‑2025 and beyond. Any acceleration in the commissioning schedule (e.g., early‑Q4 start‑up) would be a catalyst for a “beat‑and‑raise” scenario, prompting a short‑position upgrade or a buy‑on‑dip.
  

Actionable take‑away – Keep the position neutral to slightly bearish for the next quarter while monitoring the company’s upcoming capital‑expenditure update. If management signals an earlier‑than‑expected commissioning or a stronger-than‑expected capacity‑credit, consider flipping to a long stance ahead of the Q4 earnings window.