What key metrics or guidance is Synovus likely to disclose during the fireside chat with Pinnacle Financial Partners?

Likely guidance points

In a joint fireside chat at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference, Synovus will almost certainly focus on the same headline items it covered in its most recent earnings release and the “core” metrics that analysts track for regional banks:

1. Net interest income (NII) and net‑interest margin (NIM) – Synovus will give a forward‑looking view on NII growth (likely 3‑4% YoY) and the expected NIM trend as the Fed’s rate‑cut cycle progresses. A modest NIM compression is expected, but the bank will stress the “net‑interest income cushion” from its higher‑yield loan mix and the upside from a flattening yield curve.

2. Loan‑ and deposit‑growth – Management will likely quote total loan balance growth of 5‑6% for the year, with a focus on commercial real‑estate (CRE) and consumer loan segments. Deposit growth is expected to stay in the 2‑3% range, with a note on the “sticky‑deposit” base that should limit funding‑cost volatility.

3. Credit‑cost and loan‑loss provisions – Synovus will probably provide a credit‑cost outlook of 0.5‑0.6% of total loans, reflecting a modest uptick in CRE and consumer delinquencies but still below the “high‑cost” threshold for the region.

4. Net income / EPS guidance – The bank will most likely issue a FY‑2024 net‑income target of roughly $1.0 billion (≈ $0.90 EPS) and a FY‑2025 EPS outlook in the $0.95‑$1.00 range, implying a 5‑6% YoY earnings growth trajectory.

5. Capital & dividend – A reaffirmation of the 1.5% dividend payout and a statement that the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio will stay above 13.5% will be included, underscoring a solid capital buffer.

Trading implications

If Synovus delivers loan‑growth and NII guidance that exceeds consensus (e.g., loan growth > 6% or NIM compression < 30 bps), the stock could see a *10‑12% upside** on the day of the chat, as the market rewards a higher‑yielding balance sheet and a resilient credit‑cost outlook. Conversely, any surprise on the credit‑cost side—especially a jump in CRE provisions—could trigger a 5‑7% sell‑off.*

Technical context: Synovus has been trading in a tight 20‑day range around $71.30–$73.10, with the 50‑day SMA (~$71.80) acting as support. A strong guidance beat would likely break the $73.10 resistance and invite a retest of the 100‑day SMA (~$74.50). A miss, however, could push the price back toward the 20‑day low near $70.00.

Actionable take‑away – Keep a small‑position long if you can acquire the stock on a pull‑back to $71.00–$71.50 and the guidance includes loan‑growth ≥ 6% and NII ≥ $1.1 bn. If the chat reveals a higher‑than‑expected credit‑cost or a muted loan‑growth outlook, consider a short‑side or at least a defensive hedge, as the downside could be swift and technical support may be tested.