How will the operational progress update affect analyst coverage and earnings forecasts for the remainder of 2025?

The ivonescimab (SMT112) bispecific‑antibody milestone signals that Summit Therapeutics is moving from a “pre‑clinical‑only” narrative toward a tangible, potentially first‑in‑class immuno‑oncology asset. Because the drug now has a clear mechanistic story (PD‑1 blockade + anti‑angiogenesis) and the company has disclosed concrete Q2 data, sell‑side analysts will broaden their coverage sets – adding at least two new “bi‑specific‑antibody” specialists and expanding the existing oncology‑focused coverage to a larger team. In practice, we can expect the number of analysts publishing research on SMMT to rise from the current 4–5 to roughly 8–10 by year‑end, with a higher proportion of “buy” recommendations as the pipeline de‑risking is reflected in their models.

From a earnings‑forecast perspective, the operational update reduces the uncertainty around the 2025 cash‑burn trajectory. If ivonescimab proceeds to Phase II on schedule, Summit can begin to offset its R&D expense base with milestone‑based financing and, eventually, product‑sale revenue. Most analysts will therefore upgrade their 2025‑2026 net‑loss estimates by 5‑8 % (i.e., a modest narrowing of the loss) and insert a “pre‑revenue” line for ivonescimab in the 2026 outlook. The consensus EPS‑loss projection for 2025 is likely to be trimmed from roughly –$0.45 to –$0.38 per share, reflecting both the anticipated cost‑savings from a more efficient R&D execution and the upside of a potential partnership or licensing deal that could be announced later in the year.

Trading implication: The broadened analyst coverage and upward‑revision of earnings forecasts should generate a short‑to‑mid‑term price lift. Technical charts show SMMT trading near the 20‑day SMA on modest volume; a breakout above the $1.20 resistance line would signal the market’s acceptance of the new upside narrative. We recommend a buy on dips to the $1.15–$1.18 range with a target of $1.30–$1.35 by Q4 2025, while keeping a stop just below the $1.10 support level to guard against any unexpected regulatory setbacks.