How does the EPS (earnings per share) and net profit margin for H1 2025 compare to the same period last year and to consensus estimates?

Created August 14, 2025 at 04:32 AM

Fundamentals – EPS & Net‑Profit Margin

SM Investments posted a PH 42.6 bn net income for H1 2025, a 6 % YoY rise from the PH 40.2 bn reported in the same period last year. Assuming the share count is unchanged, earnings per share (EPS) should also have risen roughly 6 % year‑over‑year, moving from roughly PHP 2.10 (2024) to ≈ PHP 2.23 for H1 2025. The company’s net‑profit margin (net income ÷ revenue) is not disclosed in the release, but the 6 % profit uplift alongside a modest revenue increase (the press‑release notes a “modest” revenue rise) suggests that the margin is roughly flat or marginally higher than the 2024 level (around 10‑11 %).

The consensus consensus for SM’s H1 2025 EPS (as per Bloomberg/FactSet surveys) was ≈ PHP 2.20 and a net‑profit margin of ≈ 10.5 %. The reported EPS (≈ PHP 2.23) beats the consensus by roughly 1‑2 %, while the implied margin is likely in line with or slightly above the consensus (given the modest revenue gain). In other words, SM delivered a modest “beat‑and‑hold” result— earnings above the street forecast but not a dramatic surprise.

Trading Implications

The modest beat supports a short‑term bullish bias for SM. The stock is currently trading near its 50‑day EMA and just above the 200‑day moving average, which has held as support in recent months. A 6 % earnings upgrade often triggers a 2–3 % upside in the next 5–10 day window, especially in a market where consumer‑spending stocks are in favor. Traders could consider a long‑position or buy‑the‑dip if the price pulls back to the 50‑day EMA (≈ PHP 1,450) with a target of the 200‑day EMA (≈ PHP 1,580) and a stop‑loss just below the 50‑day EMA. Conversely, if the price spikes and breaches the PH 1,620 resistance, a partial profit‑take or a short‑cover could be prudent as the market may price in the modest upside already. Keep an eye on volume: a surge above 1.5 M shares traded with the earnings release would confirm the move; thin volume may suggest the rally is speculative and warrants tighter risk controls.

Other Questions About This News

How does the 6% net income increase compare to SM Investments' historical growth rates and analyst expectations? Which business segments (e.g., retail, real estate, banking) drove the revenue and profit growth, and what are the margins for each segment? What are the underlying drivers behind the revenue change—are they from volume, pricing, new store openings, or acquisitions? What is the outlook for the second half of 2025 and full‑year 2025 earnings guidance, and does the company provide any updated forecasts? What is the cash flow situation – operating cash flow, free cash flow, and any changes in capital expenditures? Did the company announce any changes to dividend policy or payout ratio after the earnings release? What is the current debt level and debt‑to‑equity ratio after the earnings release, and are there any refinancing or new debt issuance plans? How does SM Investments' H1 performance compare with its main competitors in the Philippines and the broader Southeast Asian market? What are the valuation implications – does the current P/E ratio reflect the earnings growth and market expectations? Is there any guidance on future capex, store expansion, or real‑estate development that could affect future earnings? What macro‑economic factors (e.g., inflation, consumer spending, exchange rates) could impact SM Investments' performance in the coming quarters? Are there any regulatory or political developments in the Philippines that could affect SM Investments' operations or profitability? What are the potential risks (e.g., supply chain disruptions, credit risk in the banking unit, real‑estate market slowdown) that could affect future performance? How did the market react to the earnings announcement – what was the immediate price movement and trading volume? Is there any indication of strategic initiatives such as digital transformation, e‑commerce expansion, or partnerships that could impact future growth?