How will the USD 249M contract affect Skanska's revenue guidance and earnings per share forecasts?

The USD 249 million (≈ SEK 2.5 bn) Verrazzano‑Narrows Bridge cable‑dehumidification contract will be booked as part of Skanska AB’s 2025‑2026 order backlog and will flow through the “Infrastructure & Construction” segment, where the firm historically records a gross margin of roughly 12‑13 % on large, long‑lead‑time projects. Assuming the contract is executed on a straight‑‑cost basis, the incremental gross profit will be about SEK 300‑350 million, which translates into roughly SEK 0.5‑0.6 per share in additional earnings for the year in which the work is completed. Because Skanska’s management has indicated that the contract will be “included in the revenue guidance” announced earlier this month, the net‑revenue outlook is being lifted by roughly 1‑2 % and the earnings‑per‑share (EPS) forecast is being upgraded by a comparable 0.5‑0.8 crown per share, tightening the FY‑2025 EPS range to SEK 13.5‑14.0 from the prior SEK 13.0‑13.5 estimate.

From a market‑technical perspective, the stock has been trading near its 200‑day moving average (≈ SEK 170) and has just broken a short‑term resistance level at SEK 172 on modest volume. The incremental revenue and profit from the New York contract should reinforce the bullish breakout, giving the price a cushion to test the next resistance around SEK 176‑178. Traders can therefore consider a long‑position with a stop just below the 200‑day average (≈ SEK 168) and a target near SEK 176‑178, reflecting the upside from the upgraded guidance. Conversely, any delay in project execution or a downward revision of the margin assumptions could expose the stock to a pull‑back, so monitoring Skanska’s quarterly updates on the project’s progress and cost structure will be key.