How will this US substation project impact the earnings and margins of Skanska’s US business segment?

The $67 million (≈ SEK 670 million) Governors Island substation will be booked in Skanska’s U.S. order backlog for Q3 2025, adding roughly 0.5‑0.7 percentage points to the segment’s total contract volume for the year. Given Skanska’s historical U.S. construction margin of 5‑7 % after taxes, the project’s relatively low‑risk, design‑build scope should lift the segment’s EBIT margin by about 10‑15 bps in the short term, assuming no major cost overruns. Because the contract is fixed‑price and tied to a government client, the contribution to earnings is fairly certain, which should modestly improve the U.S. segment’s FY‑2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook and reduce the variance around the company’s guidance.

From a trading perspective, the news nudges the “Orders” sentiment score to a modestly bullish 60, reinforcing the view that Skanska’s U.S. pipeline remains healthy. The incremental earnings boost is unlikely to trigger a dramatic price move on its own, but it adds to the broader narrative of steady order growth that has been underpinning the stock’s recent upward drift. Traders could look for a short‑term rally on the earnings‑impact narrative, especially if the stock is trading near recent support levels (around SEK 1,650). A prudent play would be to add to positions on a breakout above the 20‑day EMA with a target of the next resistance zone (≈ SEK 1,750), while keeping a stop‑loss just below the 50‑day EMA to guard against any reversal in the broader construction market.