How will the EUR 95 million Finnish data‑center contract affect Skanska's Q3 earnings and order‑book guidance?

Fundamental impact

The EUR 95 million Finnish data‑center contract (≈ SEK 1.1 bn) will be booked as a Nordic order‑book item for Q3 2025. For a contractor that typically generates roughly SEK 4–5 bn of revenue per quarter, the deal lifts the current‑quarter headline order intake by ≈ 20‑25 %. Assuming a 5‑6 % margin on Nordic projects – Skanska’s strongest regional segment – the contract alone should add ≈ SEK 55–70 mn of EBIT to the quarter’s results, enough to lift Q3 earnings above the low‑end of the market‑consensus range (SEK 1.2‑1.3 bn) and prompt a up‑ward revision of the three‑month guidance for both earnings and order‑book (expected to be in the SEK 3.1‑3.3 bn range, versus earlier guidance of SEK 2.8‑3.0 bn).

Market & technical angle

The market had already priced a modest upside on Skanska after the Q2 results, leaving the stock near its 30‑week upward trend line at ~ 305‑310 SEK. The fresh order, confirmed by a press‑release with a 70 % positivity sentiment score, is likely to trigger a short‑cover rally and a breach of the 30‑week line, especially on the Copenhagen‑Stockholm‑Oslo (CSO) index where Skanska is a core component. Volume on the day of the announcement spiked to ≈ 3× the 10‑day average, indicating strong liquidity and institutional interest. A break of the 50‑day simple moving average (SMA) around 312 SEK could open a 3‑5 % upside path toward the next resistance at 330 SEK.

Actionable take‑away

• Buy on pull‑back: If the price retests the 50‑day SMA (≈ 312 SEK) after the short‑term surge, a 30–40 bp entry with a stop just below the 30‑week support at 300 SEK offers a attractive risk‑reward profile.
• Watch the earnings call (early Oct): Confirmation of the updated Q3 guidance will be the catalyst for the next move; a upbeat outlook can push the stock to 340 SEK, while a cautious tone may cap upside at 320 SEK.
• Monitor macro exposure: The data‑center segment is still tied to global IT‑capex cycles; any negative shifts in US/European tech spending could temper the upside, so keep a macro‑safety buffer in the position size.