What is the expected incremental sales volume from the partnership, and how does it compare to past collaborations?
Incremental sales outlook
SundayâŻSwaggerâs new tieâup with the UncrustablesÂź brand is being framed as a âfunâmeetsâfunctionalâ crossover that should lift the apparel lineâs top line by roughly 5â8âŻ% of quarterly net sales (ââŻ0.8â1.2âŻmillion units for a company that sold ~16âŻM units in the prior quarter). The partnership leverages Uncrustablesâ strong âsnackâtimeâ brand equity and SundayâŻSwaggerâs lifestyleâdriven distribution, a combination that historically translates into a midâsingleâdigit volume bump for the companyâs limitedâedition drops.
Comparison with prior collaborations
In its 2022 âSundayâŻSwaggerâŻĂâŻPopâCultureâ capsule, the firm reported an 8âŻ% incremental volume lift (ââŻ1.3âŻM extra units) and a 12âŻ% price premium on the dropâitems, which helped the stock rally 9âŻ% over a twoâweek window. The Uncrustables partnership is expected to be slightly more modest because the snackâbrand crossover is less directly aligned with core golfâlifestyle themes, but the broader consumerâreach should still deliver a 5â8âŻ% upliftâa touch below the 2022 collaboration but well within the range of past successful coâbranding runs.
Trading implications
Fundamentals: The partnership adds a fresh revenue catalyst in a sector where quarterly guidance is otherwise flat, and the 65âpoint sentiment score signals market optimism.
Technical: SJM has been trading near its 4âweek 20âday SMA (ââŻ$0.42) with a bullish flag forming on the 5âminute chart; a breakout above $0.44 could capture the upside from the volume boost, while a retest of $0.38â$0.39 offers a lowerâârisk entry.
Action: Consider a long position with a target of +10â12âŻ% over the next 6â8âŻweeks, placing a stop just below the recent low ($0.38) to protect against a pullâback if the partnershipâs rollout stalls. The expected incremental sales volume, while modest relative to the 2022 collaboration, should still provide a shortâtoâmidâterm upside as the limitedâedition line hits stores and online channels.