How will the 62% international sales mix affect Sisecam's revenue stability and currency exposure?

Revenue stability

With 62 % of Sisecam’s net sales now coming from exports and from plants outside Turkey, the company’s cash‑flow picture is far more diversified than a pure‑domestic player. A broader geographic mix smooths out country‑specific demand cycles and reduces reliance on the Turkish economy, which has been prone to inflation‑driven slow‑downs. In practice, the “international” slice should act as a buffer: when Turkish‑local demand contracts, foreign orders can still sustain top‑line growth, giving the top‑line a higher degree of repeatability and lowering the probability of sharp, company‑specific revenue drops.

Currency exposure

The upside in diversification comes with a new downside – heightened foreign‑exchange (FX) risk. Sisecam’s overseas sales are denominated mainly in USD, EUR and other hard‑currency baskets, while the bulk of its cost base (raw‑materials, labor, capex) is still paid in Turkish Lira (TL). A weaker TL (which has been the case in 2025) translates into a natural hedge for the cost side, but any appreciation of the TL relative to the USD/EUR will compress the TL‑equivalent of export revenues, eroding margins. Conversely, a TL depreciation can boost reported TL‑sales but also increase the cost of imported inputs and hedging expenses. The net effect will therefore be sensitive to the direction and volatility of the USD/TL and EUR/TL pairs.

Trading implications

• Bullish bias: The strong international mix suggests a more resilient revenue stream, which can support the stock in a risk‑off environment where investors favor companies with diversified cash‑flows. If the TL continues to weaken modestly, Sisecam could see a “currency‑boosted” earnings tailwind, making the stock attractive on a fundamentals‑driven basis.
  
• Bearish bias: Watch for sharp moves in the USD/TL or EUR/TL that could create margin compression. A sudden TL appreciation or a widening USD‑TL spread beyond the company’s hedging thresholds would likely trigger a sell‑off, especially if the market perceives insufficient hedging coverage.
  
• Actionable signal: Keep the USD/TL and EUR/TL volatility bands as a leading indicator. A breakout of the 30‑day high‑volatility band on the USD/TL (e.g., > 2 % daily move) often precedes a short‑term correction in Sisecam’s price. In such scenarios, consider tight‑stop long positions or partial profit‑taking until the FX environment stabilizes. Conversely, a sustained TL depreciation with modest FX volatility can be a cue to add to long positions, especially if the stock is trading near its 20‑day moving average and showing bullish momentum.