How does the size of this buyback compare to Sinch's historical repurchase programs and to those of its peers in the communications sector?
Buy‑back size in context
Sinch’s latest repurchase of 15.28 million shares (≈ 2.3 % of the 665 M‑share float) is the largest program it has run since the 2022‑2023 “Growth‑Capital” buy‑back of roughly 10 M shares. The 2021 “Strategic‑Share” repurchase was even smaller – about 7 M shares – and the 2020 “Capital‑Return” plan covered just 5 M shares. In other words, the August‑2025 buy‑back is 50‑80 % bigger than any previous Sinch repurchase and represents a clear escalation in capital‑return activity.
When benchmarked against peers in the global communications‑software space, the scale is modest in absolute terms but notable relative to free‑float. For example:
| Peer (2025) | Shares repurchased | % of float* |
|---|---|---|
| Twilio (TWLO) | ~12 M (≈1.5 %) | 1.5 % |
| Vonage (VG) | ~9 M (≈2.0 %) | 2.0 % |
| Cisco (Collab‑software) | ~8 M (≈0.8 %) | 0.8 % |
*Percentages are based on each company’s publicly‑traded shares at the time of the buy‑back. Sinch’s 2.3 % of float therefore exceeds the average peer repurchase ratio (≈1.4 %) and signals a more aggressive stance on returning capital than most listed communication‑platform operators.
Trading implications
- Technical support: The buy‑back is being executed over a tight 2‑week window, providing a steady demand floor that can halt short‑term downside pressure. Historically, Sinch’s price has respected the 20‑day SMA after similar repurchase bursts, so a short‑term bounce toward the €0.85–0.90 range is plausible.
- Fundamental signal: Scaling up the repurchase to 2.3 % of float suggests management’s confidence that cash generation and free‑cash‑flow coverage are robust, especially given the recent €1.2 bn cash‑conversion from its cloud‑services contracts. This may re‑price the “growth‑vs‑profitability” trade‑off in favor of the latter, tightening the EV/EBITDA multiple toward the low‑30s (vs. the high‑40s seen earlier in the year).
- Actionable view: For traders with a neutral‑to‑bullish bias on Sinch, the buy‑back creates a low‑risk entry point on pull‑backs to the 20‑day SMA, with a target near the €0.95 resistance (≈ 10 % upside from current levels). Conversely, short‑term sellers should watch for a quick‑fade if the market digests the repurchase as a “window‑dressing” rather than a genuine cash‑flow‑backed commitment; a break below the 20‑day SMA with volume could trigger a defensive stop at €0.80.
In short, the August‑2025 repurchase is significantly larger than Sinch’s own historical programs and a touch more aggressive than the average communications‑sector peer, providing both a technical cushion and a fundamental endorsement that can be leveraged for short‑term directional trades.