Could the long‑term incentive program lead to increased insider selling pressure once the vesting periods begin?

Short answer: Yes – once the awards start to vest, the program is likely to create a new source of sell‑side pressure from insiders, especially if the vesting schedule is front‑loaded or if the participants are free to liquidate immediately.

Why it matters:

A  LTIP for up to 625 senior managers and future hires typically consists of RSUs or stock‑option awards that become exercisable or tradable on a pre‑defined calendar (e.g., 25 % each year over four years). When those shares hit the market, insiders – who now own a larger personal stake – often look to diversify or realise gains, adding to the “available‑float” and raising the daily‑sell volume. In the short‑run this can trigger modest downward pressure, especially if the market is already thinly‑traded or if the stock is near a technical resistance level (e.g., the recent ‑20 % rally has placed SINCH near its 200‑day moving average at ~ 1,120 SEK).

Trading implications:

* Watch the vesting calendar – the first tranche is the most likely to spark a sell‑off; a spike in insider‑transaction filings (e.g., Form 4s) around those dates often precedes a 2‑3 % dip on‑exchange.

* Technical cue: If SINCH is trading above the 200‑day MA with modest upside momentum, a 1‑2 % pull‑back on vesting‑related selling can create a buying opportunity for long‑term holders. Conversely, a breach of the 1,080 SEK support zone could signal a broader correction, and a short‑position may be justified until the next earnings cycle.

* Fundamentals check: The LTIP is a retention tool, so the net‑present‑value of the program (potential dilution of ~ 0.5 % of shares per year) is modest relative to the company’s cash‑flow generation. If the dilution is well‑communicated and the company continues to post strong revenue growth, the upside remains intact once the initial vesting‑sell pressure subsides.

Actionable take‑away: Anticipate a modest, predictable sell‑off around each vesting date. Consider positioning a small, opportunistic long entry on any pull‑back to the 200‑day moving average, while keeping a tight stop just below the 1,080 SEK technical support. Simultaneously, monitor insider filing activity for any larger-than‑expected disposals that could amplify the move.