How will the NCIB affect SIH's share liquidity and price volatility over the next year?

Liquidity Impact:

The one‑year NCIB will systematically retire a portion of SIH’s free‑float, trimming the number of shares available for trade on the TSX and alternative Canadian platforms. Because the purchases are executed in the open market, each daily buy‑in will shave a few thousand shares off the float, gradually tightening supply. In practice this tends to reduce average daily volume and can make it harder for large institutional orders to execute without moving the market. Traders should expect a modest decline in overall liquidity metrics (e.g., lower turnover ratio) as the bid progresses toward its September 2026 endpoint.

Volatility Outlook:

With a smaller float, price sensitivity to each trade rises, which can amplify short‑term volatility—particularly if the Fund accelerates purchases in response to a price dip (the NCIB’s “price‑floor” effect). However, the bid’s steady, pre‑announced schedule also provides a clear ceiling for downside moves: market participants know the Fund is willing to buy at or near prevailing levels, which usually dampens speculative selling and can compress volatility over the longer horizon. Technically, the stock may respect the recent consolidation range (e.g., the $‑mid‑$ low‑$‑high band) and test the upper bound as the buy‑back lifts support.

Trading Implications:

- Buy‑the‑dip: Look for pull‑backs toward the lower end of the current range; the NCIB offers a built‑in demand catalyst that can accelerate a rebound.

- Volume watch: A noticeable drop in daily volume combined with tighter bid‑ask spreads can signal the float is being thinned—use this as a trigger to scale in or out.

- Risk management: Because a smaller float can produce sharper price spikes, tighten stop‑loss levels (e.g., 3‑4% below entry) and avoid large, ill‑timed position sizes until the bid’s impact on liquidity stabilizes.

Overall, the NCIB should provide modest upward price pressure and a gradually tightening market environment, yielding a slightly higher but more predictable volatility profile for SIH over the next 12 months.