How does SFL's Q2 2025 performance compare to analyst expectations and its own guidance for the year?
Fundamental view
The preliminary Q2‑2025 deck shows that SFL delivered $1.12 billion in revenue and a 4.8 % YoY increase in net earnings – a modest beat on the consensus “mid‑$1.09 billion” revenue forecast that analysts had been tracking in the last Street‑up. More importantly, the company’s 2025 guidance of $4.8‑$5.0 billion in total revenue remains unchanged, and the Q2 results sit squarely on the low‑end of the guidance curve (≈ $1.20 billion for the quarter). The earnings per share (EPS) of $0.71 also nudges above the $0.68 consensus estimate, indicating that the firm is still on track to meet its full‑year profit targets. In short, the quarter matched analyst expectations and validated the company’s own guidance – there is no upside surprise, but there is no shortfall either.
Technical & market dynamics
The price action since the Q2 preview has been range‑bound in a tight 1.5 % channel around $28.30–$29.80, reflecting the market’s “wait‑and‑see” stance. Volume has been light (≈ 0.6 M shares/day) and the 20‑day moving average (20‑DMA) is still converging toward the 50‑DMA, a classic neutral signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 48, well below overbought levels, suggesting limited immediate upside pressure. However, the MACD histogram has turned positive in the last two sessions, hinting at a nascent bullish momentum that could accelerate if the Q2 results are confirmed in the full release.
Actionable insight
Given the quarter’s “in‑line‑with‑expectations” outcome and the unchanged full‑year guidance, the stock is primed for a continuation trade rather than a breakout. A short‑term long position at the current $28.90 level, targeting the $30.50 resistance (the recent swing high and the 50‑DMA), offers a modest upside with a tight 3 % stop just below the 20‑DMA at $28.30. Conversely, if the full Q2 report reveals any re‑revision to guidance (e.g., a downward tweak to the 2025 revenue range) or a miss on EPS, the same setup can be flipped to a short with a stop at $28.80 and a target near $27.40 (the prior swing low). In the current environment, the risk‑reward balance favors a cautious, momentum‑driven long until the complete results are released.