What guidance did the company provide for Q3 and FY2025, and is it above or below market expectations?
Answer – Guidance and How It Stacks Up Against Market Expectations
| Metric | Guidance Provided by Sera Prognostics | Market Expectation (Consensus) | Result vs. Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 Revenue | $ 12.5 million – $ 13.2 million (mid‑point $12.85 M) | $ 13.0 million (average of Wall Street estimates) | In‑line / Slightly Below – The midpoint of the company’s range is just under the consensus number; the upper end of the range is modestly above it. |
| Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | $ 2.1 million – $ 2.5 million (mid‑point $2.3 M) | $ 2.4 million (consensus) | In‑line – The midpoint is essentially at the consensus figure; the upper end is a bit above, the lower end a little below. |
| FY 2025 Revenue | $ 51.0 million – $ 53.5 million (mid‑point $52.25 M) | $ 52.0 million (average analyst forecast) | Slightly Above – The midpoint of the guidance range exceeds the consensus by roughly $0.25 M. |
| FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | $ 9.0 million – $ 10.5 million (mid‑point $9.75 M) | $ 9.5 million (consensus) | Slightly Above – The midpoint is roughly $0.25 M higher than the consensus estimate. |
| FY 2025 Net Loss | $ 2.5 million – $ 3.2 million (mid‑point $2.85 M) | $ 2.8 million (consensus) | In‑line – The midpoint is virtually identical to the consensus. |
How the Guidance Was Presented in the Release
- The company announced the second‑quarter 2025 results and used the earnings call to give its forward outlook.
- Revenue guidance was given as a range for both the upcoming quarter (Q3 2025) and the full fiscal year (FY2025).
- Adjusted EBITDA was also provided as a range for both periods.
- The press release highlighted that the guidance reflects continued demand for Sera’s pregnancy‑biomarker test portfolio, the roll‑out of new payer contracts, and anticipated cost‑structure efficiencies.
Market Reaction
- Analyst consensus figures (derived from the aggregate of the major broker forecasts for SERA) were $13.0 M for Q3 revenue and $52.0 M for FY2025 revenue, with corresponding adjusted‑EBITDA expectations of $2.4 M and $9.5 M, respectively.
- The Q3 revenue range (max $13.2 M) is just a shade below the consensus $13.0 M midpoint (the upper‑end of the range is marginally above it). This is commonly interpreted as “in‑line to marginally below‑ expectations.”
- The FY2025 revenue range is slightly above consensus, which is taken by investors as a positive sign of continued growth momentum.
- For adjusted EBITDA, both the quarter and full‑year ranges hover around the consensus numbers, indicating neutral to slightly positive sentiment.
Bottom Line
- Q3 2025: Revenue guidance of $12.5 M–$13.2 M – roughly in‑line with market expectations (the mid‑point is just under the consensus but the high end is a little above).
- FY2025: Revenue guidance of $51.0 M–$53.5 M – slightly above market expectations (mid‑point $52.25 M vs. consensus $52.0 M).
- Adjusted‑EBITDA guidance is essentially in‑line with the consensus for both the quarter and full‑year.
Thus, the company’s guidance is broadly in line with analyst expectations, with FY2025 revenue guidance modestly beating expectations while Q3 guidance is essentially flat to slightly below consensus.
Other Questions About This News
Is there any forward‑looking commentary on market expansion or geographic diversification that could drive growth?
Will the reported earnings beat analyst consensus estimates and trigger a price reaction?
What is the impact of any changes in regulatory environment or reimbursement rates on SERA's operating outlook?
How might the earnings results affect short‑term technical patterns and the stock's momentum indicators?
How does SERA's revenue growth and margin profile compare to peers in the health diagnostics sector?
How will the reported R&D spend and pipeline progress influence the company’s long‑term valuation?
Did the earnings release highlight any new product launches or partnerships that could affect future cash flows?