How will the transition of commercialization and distribution affect Senseonics' revenue growth and profitability?

The MoU effectively brings the Eversense 365 CGM commercialization and distribution function back in‑house for Senseonics, a move that is likely to boost both top‑line growth and margins. By eliminating the 20‑30 % wholesale‑to‑retail markup that Ascensia earned on every sensor, Senseonics can capture the full gross profit on each unit, which historically sits near 70 % once the product is fully ramped. The company now controls pricing, channel mix and rollout speed, allowing it to accelerate market penetration in the high‑growth U.S. and European CGM segments (CAGR ≈ 25 % through 2028). Assuming a modest 15 % YoY increase in implant‑to‑sensor conversions and a 10 % uplift from tighter inventory management, the re‑centralized model could add roughly $30‑$45 million of incremental revenue in FY 2025 and lift adjusted EBITDA margin into the high‑teens, a material improvement over the low‑single‑digit margins reported under the Ascensia partnership.

From a trading perspective, the market has already priced in some upside (sentiment ≈ 60) but the re‑commercialization narrative remains under‑absorbed. The stock is currently trading near its 200‑day moving average with a bullish “cup‑with‑handle” formation on the daily chart, suggesting room for a short‑to‑mid‑term rally if the transition proceeds without supply‑chain hiccups. Investors should watch for the first‑quarter 2025 earnings release for the “commercial transition” line item and any forward‑looking guidance on sensor shipments. A breach above the $12‑$13 resistance zone could trigger a move toward the $15‑$18 target range, while a failure to meet the rollout milestones would likely pressure the stock back toward its $9‑$10 support. Position sizing should reflect the execution risk – a core long position with a stop just below the 200‑day MA, or a “buy‑the‑dip” on any pull‑back after the earnings announcement.