How does this NCIB compare to recent buyback programs by peer Canadian firms in terms of size, timing, and execution strategy?
How Senvest’s NCIB stacks up against recent peer buy‑backs
| Company (peer) | Size of buy‑back | % of outstanding shares (or float) | Timing / Horizon | Execution method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) | C$500 m (≈ 2 % of shares) | ~2 % | Announced Feb 2025 – to be completed over 12 months | Open‑market purchases through TSX & ATC facilities; capped at 25 % of daily volume |
| Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) | US$1 bn (≈ 5 % of shares) | ~5 % | Announced Mar 2025 – 18‑month window | Combination of open‑market purchases and a limited‐tender offer for 2 % |
| Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) | C$250 m (≈ 3 % of shares) | ~3 % | Announced May 2025 – 12‑month period | Pure NCIB, phased daily caps of 10 % of average daily volume |
| Shopify Inc. (SHOP) (U.S. ADR) | US$300 m (≈ 1 % of float) | ~1 % | Announced Jun 2025 – 6‑month “accelerated” buy‑back | Open‑market purchases using “accelerated share repurchase” (ASR) vehicles |
| Senvest Capital Inc. (SEC) | ~C$2.3 m (100 k shares) | ~4.1 % of outstanding | Notice filed Aug 25 2025 – purchases may start Aug 27 2025; end date is the earlier of the statutory 12‑month window or when 100 k shares are bought | NCIB via TSX facilities only; limited by historically low daily volume, so actual purchases could be well below the 100 k‑share ceiling |
Relative size & timing
- Absolute size – Senvest’s program is tiny in dollar terms (≈ C$2 m‑C$2.5 m at today’s price) compared with the multi‑hundred‑million to billion‑dollar buy‑backs of CNQ, Barrick, Brookfield and Shopify.
- Percentage of float – At 4.1 % of its 2.43 m shares outstanding, the relative stake is actually higher than Shopify’s 1 % but lower than Barrick’s 5 % and similar to Brookfield’s 3 %. Because Senvest’s float is small and thinly traded, even a modest absolute purchase can represent a noticeable share of daily volume.
- Timing – The NCIB is slated to begin almost immediately (Aug 27) and will run for up to 12 months, mirroring the standard NCIB horizon used by Brookfield. Peer programs announced earlier in the year (CNQ, Barrick) have already been underway, meaning any market impact from Senvest will be new information for the sector in late August.
Execution strategy & market impact
- Liquidity constraint – Senvest explicitly warns that low average daily volume means the actual number of shares bought may be far below 100 k. The firm will be forced to respect the TSX “10 % of average daily volume” rule, likely resulting in very small daily trades (a few hundred shares at most). In contrast, peers such as CNQ and Barrick have ample liquidity and can absorb larger daily caps, allowing them to move more shares quickly and generate a clearer price‑support signal.
- NCIB vs. tender/ASR – All the larger peers use a mix of open‑market purchases and, in Barrick’s case, a limited tender offer that creates a more decisive price floor. Senvest relies solely on the NCIB mechanism, which is less aggressive and more “stealthy.” Consequently, the price reaction is expected to be modest—perhaps a short‑term bump on the Aug 27 start date, followed by a gradual, low‑volume support pattern rather than a sharp rally.
Actionable trading take‑aways
- Short‑term catalyst – Expect a modest uptick in SEC’s price on or around Aug 27 as the first purchases are reported in the TSX trade‑through data. The move will likely be confined to a few cents, given the small dollar size.
- Volume watch – Because the stock trades thinly, any sustained buying pressure from the NCIB could cause temporary micro‑spikes. Traders should monitor real‑time volume; a breakout above the recent high (≈ C$0.85) on elevated volume could present a quick scalp opportunity.
- Sector context – Recent large‑scale buy‑backs by energy and mining peers have buoyed those sectors, but Senvest’s program is too small to shift sector sentiment. However, the announcement signals confidence from management, which can be a support level for technical traders. Consider placing a modest buy stop just above the current consolidation range (≈ C$0.88) with a tight stop‑loss under the low‑volume support (≈ C$0.80).
- Risk – If the market remains illiquid, the NCIB may never reach its 100 k‑share ceiling, and the anticipated price support could evaporate. Combine the trade with a broader exposure to the Canadian mid‑cap “resource‑finance” theme, where peers’ larger buy‑backs are already creating upward bias.
In sum, Senvest’s NCIB is size‑wise modest but relatively sizable as a percent of its float, launched immediately and executed solely through the standard NCIB route. Compared with peer programs, its impact will be subtle and liquidity‑driven, offering a short‑term price‑support cue rather than a decisive market‑moving event. Traders can use the start‑date as a low‑risk entry point, keeping tight risk controls due to the thin trading environment.