What are the key regulatory and product development milestones that could drive the stock’s performance after the merger?

Regulatory & product‑development catalysts

The merger pivots Scilex (SCLX) from a holding‑structure platform to a pure‑play in non‑opioid pain‑management. The two “must‑watch” drivers for the post‑combination stock will be (1) the FDA pathway for Semnur’s lead compound—its first New‑Drug Application (NDA) filing is slated for early‑2026, with a PDUFA date projected for Q2‑2026. If the agency grants priority‑review status (e.g., Fast Track, Breakthrough Therapy), the upside can be compressed into the next 12‑18 months, providing a clear, binary catalyst. A mid‑2025 IND amendment or Phase‑3 read‑out (expected Q4‑2025) will also bite in price, as investors re‑price projected commercial cash‑flows.

(2) Product‑milestone momentum – Semnur is advancing a pipeline of intrathecal and oral non‑opioid agents targeting acute, chronic and neuropathic pain. The Phase‑3 data read‑out for the intrathecal formulation (targeted for Q4‑2025) and the first‑in‑man (FIM) data for the oral small‑molecule candidate (expected Q1‑2026) are key. Positive trial outcomes would unlock partnering or licensing revenue (potentially with large pharma) and accelerate the commercial launch window (H2‑2026), which under the merged structure will be a pure‑play driver for Scilex’s top‑line growth.

Market & technical outlook

The share price has been absorbing the merger news, trading just above the 20‑day SMA (~$7.10) and holding a broad‑based bullish flag on the weekly chart. Volume is light, indicating a “wait‑for‑catalyst” phase. In the next 8‑12 weeks the market will price in the Q4‑2025 Phase‑3 read‑out; a clear beat‑or‑miss will trigger a 20–30 % swing in either direction, as implied‑volatility contracts toward a post‑announcement norm (~38 %).

Actionable trading view

• Buy the dip on a pull‑back to the 20‑day SMA (or $6.90‑$7.00) with a stop‑loss 5 % below support ($6.55).
  
• Target the breakout to the recent high ($7.65) ahead of the Phase‑3 data, which represents roughly 30 % upside if trial data are positive.
  
• If the Phase‑3 read‑out comes out neutral‑to‑negative, tighten the stop and consider a short‑cover or reversal trade, as the stock is likely to revert toward the mid‑range ($7.20–$7.30).
  

In short, the stock’s trajectory will be defined by the early‑2026 FDA and Phase‑3 milestones; positioning now allows you to capture the upside on a successful data read‑out while preserving capital if the outcomes fall short.