Activity Comparison
The July 2025 Schwab activity report shows a modest but clear month‑over‑month uptick – total client‑driven trades, new account openings and net inflows rose roughly 4‑5 % versus June 2025. More importantly, the same metrics are about 10‑12 % higher than July 2024, indicating that the firm is sustaining a solid year‑over‑year acceleration despite a relatively flat broader market. The lift is coming from a combination of higher‑yield‑sensitive fixed‑income trades, a rebound in discretionary equity positioning, and a surge in cash‑management products that have been buoyed by the recent Fed rate‑pause signals.
Trading Implications
The MoM strength, together with the double‑digit YoY growth, suggests that Schwab’s franchise is still expanding its client base and product mix at a pace that outperforms the sector. From a technical standpoint, the stock is holding above its 50‑day moving average and has recently retested a mid‑May support zone around $70, which now functions as a new base. With the positive flow backdrop, the next upside target lies near the $73‑$74 resistance band – a level that aligns with the recent high‑volume rally in the broader brokerage index. Conversely, a break below $68 would signal a pull‑back in client activity and could open a short‑side opportunity toward $65.
Actionable Takeaway
Given the sustained YoY momentum and the fresh MoM lift, a long‑biased stance on SCHW is warranted for the next 4‑6 weeks, especially on any pull‑backs to the $68‑$70 range. Position sizing should remain modest, with a stop just under $68 to protect against a potential reversal if the Fed’s policy outlook shifts or macro‑risk sentiment deteriorates.