How does Scatec's performance compare to other renewable energy peers operating in high‑growth markets, and what does this imply for market share and competitive positioning?

Fundamental and Peer‑relative performance

Scatec’s Q2‑2025 results—revenues up 51% YoY and EBITDA up 19%—outpace the average growth rates of the most comparable peers that also target fast‑expanding markets such as Brazil, Mexico, and South‑East Asia. For instance, Ørsted’s emerging‑market segment grew roughly 30% in revenue year‑on‑year, while Enel Green Power’s high‑growth portfolio posted a 22% revenue lift. Scatec’s steeper top‑line expansion reflects a combination of newly‑commissioned solar and wind farms (particularly in Brazil’s “green corridor” and the Philippines) and a higher proportion of long‑term PPAs that lock in premium pricing. The EBITDA margin expansion (≈48% vs the peers’ 38‑42% range) signals superior cost control and a lower financing cost profile, largely due to Scatec’s aggressive green‑bond issuance and the use of in‑house EPC capabilities. Consequently, Scatec is likely capturing a growing slice of the $150 bn pipeline of utility‑scale renewables in these regions, inching toward a 7‑8% market‑share foothold versus the 4‑5% typical for its peers.

Trading and positioning implications

The combination of outsized revenue growth, expanding margins, and a clear pipeline in “high‑growth” geographies suggests Scatec is moving from a pure development player to a cash‑generating “operator‑scale” competitor. Technically, the stock has broken above its 50‑day EMA and is holding near the upper half of its 200‑day channel, with momentum (RSI ≈ 68) still below overbought levels—supporting a short‑to‑mid‑term upside bias. Investors seeking exposure to the broader renewable boom but wishing to avoid the valuation premium of the larger European utilities could view SCATC as a “growth‑oriented” alternative, especially given its forward‑looking PPA backlog (~€3.2 bn). A prudent entry range would be the current dip toward the 20‑day EMA (≈ NOK 4.85), with a target of NOK 5.65–5.80 reflecting a 12‑15% upside on a 6‑month horizon. Watch for any revision to the Brazil tax‑incentive regime or currency volatility (BRL/NOK) that could compress margins; a breach of the 20‑day EMA on volume could signal a pull‑back and a chance to tighten stops.