How will the seven-figure agreement with Suhora affect Satellogic's revenue guidance and earnings forecasts?

The $ 1‑‑9.9 million deal with Suhora adds a new, high‑margin data‑feed stream in the world’s fastest‑growing EO market—India. Because the contract is structured as an upfront licence fee plus a multi‑year service component, management is likely to incorporate the upfront cash into the current quarter’s topline while lifting the 2025‑26 revenue guidance by roughly 3‑5 % (≈ $5‑7 million) and expanding the earnings per share (EPS) outlook by a comparable 4‑6 bps. The partnership also deepens the “recurring‑revenue moat” that analysts have flagged as a upside catalyst, implying a higher gross‑margin profile (≈ 4‑5 pp higher) as the bulk of the work is software‑and‑data delivery rather than hardware launch costs.

From a trading perspective the market is already pricing in the upside (the stock has rallied ~7 % on the news), but the modest size of the contract means the real premium will come from any forward‑looking guidance revisions. If Satellogic raises its 2024‑25 revenue forecast beyond the $130 million consensus, the upside could be 8‑12 % in the next 4‑6 weeks, supporting a short‑to‑medium‑term bullish stance. Conversely, if guidance remains unchanged the price may revert toward the $30‑day SMA as the move is viewed as “already baked‑in.” Recommended trade: stay long/hold pending a management commentary bump; consider adding on a pull‑back toward the 20‑day SMA if the stock stalls above $6.20, with a target near $7.10‑$7.30 on the revised outlook.