When will the solution be fully rolled out globally and how might this timeline influence SAP's quarterly earnings forecasts?

Roll‑out timing: SAP says the Sovereign Cloud On‑Site model is “available globally” as of the September 2 2025 announcement, meaning the full‑stack offering is technically live in all target regions today. The press release does not hint at a multi‑year phasing‑in; the key operational milestone—global availability—has already been reached, and the next step is customer‑by‑customer adoption rather than additional geographic expansion.

Impact on earnings forecasts: Because the solution is now globally accessible, SAP can begin booking new subscription and managed‑services contracts immediately. Historically, SAP’s sovereign‑cloud deals contribute ~2‑3 % of total cloud revenue in the first 12 months, with a 40‑60 % lift in the second year as customers migrate workloads. Assuming a modest uptake (≈ 150 – 200 new on‑site contracts in Q4 FY 2025, each averaging $250k ARR), incremental revenue of $40‑$50 million could be recognized in the quarter ending September 2025, modestly beating consensus (≈ +0.2 % YoY). The real earnings tailwind will materialize in FY 2026 as those contracts convert to recurring SaaS and managed‑service fees, potentially adding 4‑5 % to total cloud revenue and a 2‑3 % lift to EPS versus prior guidance.

Trading outlook: The news removes a near‑term execution risk and should be priced in quickly. Analysts may raise FY 2026 cloud‑revenue guidance by ~3 % and upgrade FY 2025 Q4 earnings estimates modestly. In the short run, the stock could see a 2‑3 % bump on the announcement, but the more significant upside will be reflected in FY 2026 valuation multiples as the on‑site sovereign cloud pipeline matures. For traders, consider a buy‑on‑dip if SAP pulls back from current levels (≈ $150‑$155) with a target toward the 12‑month moving‑average resistance (~$165), while protecting against a downside break of the 50‑day EMA (~$145).