How will the announced share buyback size and timing affect Sampo's earnings per share and valuation multiples?

Impact on EPS and valuation multiples

The announced buy‑back will retire a material chunk of Sampo’s outstanding shares over the coming months. Assuming the programme is of the size hinted at in the release (roughly 2‑3 % of the free‑float), the immediate mechanical effect is a reduction in the denominator of earnings‑per‑share calculations. With 2024 net profit already on track at roughly €1.2 bn, a 2 % share‑count cut translates into an EPS uplift of about 2‑2.5 % (≈ €0.34 → €0.35‑0.36). Because the market price typically reacts positively to a buy‑back—both from the direct demand pressure and the signaling that management is confident about future cash generation—the headline P/E is likely to compress further. If the share price climbs 1‑2 % on the news, the forward P/E could fall by roughly 3‑4 % versus the pre‑announcement level, putting Sampo marginally cheaper on a multiple basis relative to its Nordic insurance peers.

Trading implications

The timing of the programme (execution beginning in early Q4 2025) creates a short‑term catalyst. Expect the stock to test the upside of the recent consolidation range (EUR 30‑32) with tighter volume spikes as the buy‑back is funded. A breakout above EUR 32 on heightened demand would reinforce a bullish bias and could open the path to the next resistance around EUR 34‑35, especially if EPS guidance is revised upward. Conversely, a failure to clear EUR 30 on a pull‑back may signal that the buy‑back is already priced in and could lead to a modest correction. Positionally, a disciplined “buy‑the‑dip” around EUR 30–31 with a target at EUR 33–34 and a stop just below the recent low (≈ EUR 29.5) would capture the EPS‑driven upside while limiting exposure to any unexpected earnings headwinds.