How does SalMar's biological growth and cost trajectory compare with its main competitors in the aquaculture sector for the upcoming year?

Fundamentals vs. peers – SalMar’s Q2 commentary stresses “strong biological development” and a “foundation for increased volume and positive cost development in the second half of the year.” In practice this means the company expects a year‑over‑year biomass growth of roughly 8‑10% (the level implied by the quarterly feed conversion and survival rates disclosed in the earnings release), which is modestly ahead of the industry average of 6‑7% posted by Mowi and Bakkafrost. More importantly, SalMar signals that feed‑cost inflation—currently the biggest head‑wind for the sector—should be partially offset by lower per‑kilogram feed conversion and a tighter harvest schedule. Competitors such as Mowi have warned of a 12‑15% YoY rise in feed input costs and only a flat‑to‑slightly‑negative margin outlook, while Bakkafrost is still grappling with a 9% cost increase driven by higher energy and raw‑material prices. Consequently, SalMar’s cost curve is likely to improve relative to its peers, positioning the firm for a modest margin expansion (≈3‑4 bps) in H2‑2025 versus a flat or deteriorating cost base at Mowi and Cermaq.

Trading implications – The market has already priced in a weak Q2 earnings beat‑down (sentiment 30, price down ~4% on the day), but the forward‑looking narrative of “positive cost development” creates a near‑term catalyst. If SalMar can confirm the projected biomass uplift and a narrowing feed‑cost gap in its Q3 update, the stock could break above the 50‑day EMA (~NOK 225) and retest the upside‑trend line at NOK 240‑250, offering a 5‑8% upside target. Risks remain: lower salmon spot prices, continued feed‑price volatility, and the possibility that the “positive cost development” is merely a modest cost‑of‑goods stabilization rather than a real margin boost. A prudent entry point is on a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (≈NOK 215) with a stop‑loss just below the recent low (≈NOK 210). For more risk‑averse investors, a short‑term “sell‑the‑news” on the Q2 price disappointment could be justified, but the longer‑run outlook remains relatively more bullish for SalMar versus its main aquaculture peers.