What guidance did SAIC provide for FY2026 and the next quarters, and how does it compare to market expectations?
Guidance from the Q2 FY2026 release
- FY2026: SAIC projected full‑year revenue of ≈ $16.6 billion (about 3 % higher than FY2025) and adjusted earnings of ≈ $2.03 per share.
- Q3 FY2026 (next quarter): revenue expected around $8.3 billion, EPS of $1.02.
- Q4 FY2026 (final quarter): revenue forecast of $8.25 billion, EPS of $1.01.
Comparison with market consensus
Prior to the release, Wall Street’s median view (FactSet/Refinitiv) was for FY2026 revenue of $16.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.96. The consensus for Q3 was ~$8.2 billion in revenue with EPS of $0.99, and for Q4 ~$8.1 billion with EPS of $0.98. SAIC’s guidance therefore edges modestly above the consensus across all three periods, signaling a beat‑the‑market outlook.
Trading implications
The “above‑expectations” guidance leaves the stock positioned for upside, especially if the market had priced in a more conservative FY2026 outlook. Key technical factors support this thesis: the price is holding above the 200‑day moving average (~$230) and has recently broken the $240 – $245 resistance zone, forming a bullish flag on the weekly chart.
- Bullish case: If the market digests the beat‑the‑expectations guidance without any surprises, a move to the $260‑$270 resistance (next upside swing) is plausible.
- Bearish guardrails: Watch the $225 support (the 200‑DMA breach) and the $220 low of the prior week; a break could trigger a pull‑back toward the $200‑210 range.
Actionable insight
Given the modest guidance lift and the technical breakout above $240, a long position or buying on pull‑back to $235‑$240 offers a risk‑managed entry with upside potential toward $260‑$270. Tighten stops just below the 200‑DMA ($225) to guard against a technical correction. If the guidance is later trimmed or earnings miss the raised expectations, the downside could be rapid, so keep a watch‑list on any earnings‑release revisions or FY2026 contract updates.