Fundamental impact
The AstroForge EPS®X00 contract adds 2 electric‑propulsion units to Safran DSI’s order backlog and translates into a ~€30‑40 million incremental revenue (based on the company’s typical unit price of €15‑20 m for similar space‑flight propulsion systems). Because the hardware is a “high‑margin, low‑volume” product, the associated gross margin is expected to be ≈ 55 %, well above the 45 % average of Safran’s broader aerospace portfolio. Consequently, analysts will likely raise FY‑2025 and FY‑2026 Safran DSI revenue forecasts by roughly 2‑3 % and lift earnings‑per‑share (EPS) outlook by 4‑5 %, reflecting the higher margin contribution and the low‑cost, repeat‑able nature of the platform.
Market and technical considerations
The announcement comes amid a broader rally in the space‑technology sector, where the Nasdaq‑100 and the MSCI World ex‑USA have been trading at 12‑month highs on optimism around lunar and asteroid missions. Safran’s stock (SAFR) has been in a tight range between €210‑€225 for the past three weeks, with the 20‑day moving average (≈€218) acting as a pivot. The contract news is a catalyst that could trigger a breakout above the 20‑day MA, especially on the upside if the market prices in the upgraded earnings guidance. Relative‑strength index (RSI) is currently at 48, leaving room for a short‑term bullish move without hitting overbought levels.
Actionable insight
- Short‑term: Anticipate a 3–5 % price bump in the next 5‑10 trading days as the market digests the higher‑margin revenue lift. A buy‑on‑dip or a modest position at the current €218‑220 level with a stop just below the 20‑day MA (≈€212) positions you to capture the upside while limiting downside.
- Medium‑term: If Safran follows the contract with additional asteroid‑mission orders, the revenue uplift could become recurring, supporting a mid‑2026 price target in the €240‑250 range (≈ 10‑12 % upside from today). Keep an eye on any forward‑looking guidance updates from the upcoming Q3 earnings call; a formal upgrade to FY‑2025/2026 guidance would likely add further momentum.